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2,689

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5

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UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis fight?

Volume:
$25,404,715

Paddy Pimblett

 - Kalshi

Paddy Pimblett - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 12, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 11:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Paddy Pimblett

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$17,387,329
N/A
N/A
$13,669,082
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,651,854
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,754
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Benoit Saint-Denis

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,254,163
N/A
N/A
$3,996,077
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45,382
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,516
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Pimblett to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,825
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Saint Denis to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,295
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,231
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$784
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$583
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks the outcome and method of victory in the UFC 329 lightweight main card bout between Paddy Pimblett and Benoît Saint Denis, aggregating consensus data from Polymarket and Kalshi against official UFC.com records. The leading outcome currently sits at 100.0%, reflecting the certainty that this scheduled event will take place. Watch for any official UFC announcements regarding fighter status or bout confirmation as the July 11, 2026 fight date approaches.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's fight outcome market contains a logical contradiction: both fighters are mapped to YES resolution with no NO outcome defined, making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket markets are logically sound and mutually exclusive.Hero tip: Do not trade or settle against Kalshi's defective market structure. Use Polymarket as the authoritative source. Kalshi requires immediate platform correction before any settlement can occur.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Seven coherent markets covering fight outcome (winner), method (KO/TKO, submission, decision), round thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5), and distance completion. All edge cases (draw, DQ, no-contest, postponement beyond July 25, 2026) resolve 50-50. Source: official UFC information. Mutually exclusive outcomes enforced.
  • Kalshi: Single market with critical logical flaw: 'If Paddy Pimblett wins...resolve Yes' AND 'If Benoit Saint-Denis wins...resolve Yes' with no defined NO outcome. Both fighters cannot simultaneously win; market is unresolvable as written. No edge-case handling specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Paddy Pimblett" if Paddy Pimblett is officially declared the winner of the fight against Benoît Saint Denis at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Benoît Saint Denis" if Benoît Saint Denis is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on the fight outcome occurring on or shortly after the originally scheduled date of July 11, 2026. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled bout concludes within two weeks. In the event of a tie or no contest, both fighters receive a 50/50 split resolution. Should the fight be cancelled or rescheduled beyond two weeks from the original date, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with established rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading, where prices reflect what other traders will pay, rather than a sportsbook's fixed margin model. Sportsbooks build in juice or vig—a spread that guarantees profit regardless of outcome—whereas prediction markets compress that spread through continuous order-book matching. This often makes prediction market odds tighter and more efficient, especially as volume grows. However, sportsbooks may react faster to breaking news or injury reports, while prediction markets lag slightly. For this matchup, comparing both sources helps identify mispricings and arbitrage opportunities.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Platform design, user base, and liquidity pools shape how each venue prices the same event. Polymarket attracts global traders with lower barriers to entry, while Kalshi operates under U.S. regulatory frameworks and draws a different demographic. Funding mechanisms, fee structures, and order-book depth also vary, meaning one platform may react faster to new information than the other. Additionally, each platform's user base may hold different conviction levels on the fighters' matchup, creating temporary price gaps. These spreads typically narrow closer to the event as arbitrageurs exploit discrepancies.