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UFC 329: Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley (Featherweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the UFC 329 featherweight prelim between Kai Kamaka III and Luke Riley?

Volume:
$2,108,446

Luke Riley

 - Kalshi

Luke Riley - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 7:29 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Luke Riley

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$714,697
N/A
N/A
$579,098
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Riley to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,841
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,191
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$18
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Kai Kamaka III

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$890,056
N/A
N/A
$809,286
Settled
No
polymarket

Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$483,306
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,514
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$987
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Kamaka III to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$781
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC 329 preliminary featherweight bout between Kai Kamaka III and Luke Riley will end within 0.5 rounds or extend beyond that threshold. The aggregated consensus across Kalshi and Polymarket shows 99.6% probability for the over/under 0.5 rounds outcome. Resolution will be determined by official UFC records at ufc.com/events. Watch the fight scheduled for July 11, 2026, to see whether the bout concludes in the opening moments or progresses into the second round.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket provides comprehensive method-of-victory and duration markets with explicit edge-case handling, while Kalshi offers only a binary win-loss market with undefined cancellation and postponement protocols.Hero tip: Polymarket markets are more granular and have explicit 50-50 resolution for cancellations/postponements beyond July 25, 2026. Kalshi's binary structure lacks this clarity. Cross-platform traders should hedge Kalshi exposure against Polymarket's method markets and monitor for postponement announcements.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Eight distinct markets covering fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO by either fighter, submission), distance (full scheduled rounds), and duration thresholds (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds). All markets explicitly resolve 50-50 for No Contest, non-scoring, cancellation, or postponement beyond July 25, 2026. Resolution source: Official UFC information.
  • Kalshi: Single binary market: resolves Yes if either Kai Kamaka III or Luke Riley wins the bout scheduled for July 11, 2026. No explicit handling of cancellation, postponement, No Contest, or non-scoring scenarios. Resolution source not specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Kai Kamaka III" if Kai Kamaka III is officially declared the winner of the fight against Luke Riley at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Luke Riley" if Luke Riley is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on the fight outcome occurring on or shortly after the originally scheduled date of July 11, 2026. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled bout concludes within two weeks. In the event of a tie or no contest, both fighters receive a 50/50 split resolution. Should the fight be cancelled or rescheduled beyond two weeks from the original date, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with established rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price fights differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a margin, while prediction markets rely on trader consensus to discover prices. This market's odds reflect what thousands of independent traders believe will happen, often incorporating granular fighter analysis, injury reports, and public sentiment faster than traditional books update lines. Comparing this market's implied probability to major sportsbook spreads can reveal where sharp traders see value or disagreement.

Polymarket and Kalshi serve different trader bases, regulatory frameworks, and liquidity pools, which naturally creates price divergence. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform's fee structure, user demographics, and market design also influence how quickly new information gets priced in. On Polymarket, the broader retail audience may weight public sentiment heavily, while Kalshi's institutional-leaning user base might emphasize statistical models. These differences mean the same fight can trade at meaningfully different odds across venues, creating opportunities for informed traders to identify mispricings.

Several catalysts can shift odds before the bout takes place. Injury announcements or fighter withdrawals would trigger sharp repricing, as would unexpected opponent changes. Public training footage, analyst commentary, and betting action from known sharp bettors often move markets significantly. Weigh-in results and official fighter statements in the week before the event typically drive final adjustments. Additionally, if either fighter competes in a tune-up bout beforehand, performance there could influence trader sentiment. Monitor MMA news outlets and social media for breaking developments that might alter consensus expectations.