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UFC 329: Farid Basharat vs. John Garza (Bantamweight, Early Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the Basharat vs. Garza bantamweight fight?

Volume:
$194,420

Farid Basharat vs. John Garza

 - Polymarket

Farid Basharat vs. John Garza - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 11:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Farid Basharat vs. John Garza

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$166,476
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Decision / Draw / No Contest

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,996
N/A
N/A
$6,784
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,901
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,489
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$29
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Farid Basharat to win in Round 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,441
N/A
N/A
$3,917
Settled
No
kalshi

Farid Basharat to win in Round 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,230
N/A
N/A
$2,716
Settled
No
kalshi

John Garza to win in Round 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,196
N/A
N/A
$2,194
Settled
No
kalshi

Farid Basharat to win in Round 3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,907
N/A
N/A
$1,547
Settled
No
kalshi

John Garza to win in Round 3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,352
N/A
N/A
$1,302
Settled
No
kalshi

John Garza to win in Round 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$971
N/A
N/A
$877
Settled
No
polymarket

Garza to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$690
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Basharat to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$313
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$298
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$114
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 16

Description

This event group covers UFC 329 bantamweight early prelim fight between Farid Basharat and John Garza scheduled for July 11, 2026. Markets span winner determination, fight duration, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), and round-specific outcomes across Polymarket and Kalshi platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi classify fight outcomes differently. Polymarket separates KO/TKO, submission, and decision into distinct binary markets and does not explicitly include disqualification as a finisher. Kalshi bundles KO, TKO, submission, and disqualification together in round-specific markets, treating all four as equivalent 'early finish' outcomes.Hero tip: The key risk is disqualification. On Polymarket, a disqualification win would resolve No on both KO/TKO and submission markets. On Kalshi, the same disqualification would resolve Yes on the corresponding round market. Before settlement, confirm with each platform whether disqualification is classified as a finisher or a separate outcome category. Given the rarity of UFC disqualifications, this divergence is unlikely to matter in practice, but it creates a logical gap.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Outcome classification: Separates fight results into winner (Basharat/Garza/50-50), distance (full rounds or not), and method (KO/TKO, submission, or decision by judges). KO/TKO market resolves Yes only if fight ends by KO, TKO, referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Submission market resolves Yes only if fight ends by tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission. Disqualification is not mentioned as a resolution path. Quote: 'If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve No.' (from KO/TKO and submission market descriptions).
  • Kalshi: Outcome classification: Round-specific markets bundle KO, TKO, submission, and disqualification as equivalent finisher outcomes. Each round market (R1, R2, R3) resolves Yes if either fighter wins by any of these four methods in that round. A catch-all market resolves Yes if the fight goes to decision or ends in draw/no contest. Quote: 'If Farid Basharat wins by KO, TKO, Submission, or Disqualification in Round 1... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Farid Basharat" if Farid Basharat is officially declared the winner of the fight against John Garza at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It will resolve to "John Garza" if John Garza is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on when and how the fight concludes. Farid Basharat can win by KO, TKO, submission, or disqualification in round 1, 2, or 3. John Garza can win by KO, TKO, submission, or disqualification in round 1, 2, or 3. If the fight reaches a decision or ends in a draw or no contest, the "Decision / Draw / No Contest" outcome resolves to Yes. Technical decisions are treated as decisions and do not count as round-specific wins. Each outcome is mutually exclusive based on the actual fight result.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like these operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed odds set by a sportsbook. Traders buy and sell shares directly, meaning prices reflect live consensus rather than a bookmaker's margin. This often results in tighter spreads and faster price discovery, especially as new information emerges. Sportsbooks, by contrast, adjust lines to manage liability and profit. For this matchup, comparing prediction market prices to traditional sportsbook lines can reveal which side the crowd favors and whether sharp action is flowing in one direction.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and regulatory frameworks. Polymarket may draw more international participation and larger position sizes, while Kalshi's structure appeals to traders seeking specific contract mechanics. Order flow timing, market depth, and platform-specific incentives all influence how quickly prices converge. Additionally, different user bases may interpret fight data or fighter form differently, creating temporary arbitrage opportunities. These gaps typically narrow as the event date approaches and information becomes more widely distributed.

Fighter injuries, weight-cut complications, or late withdrawals would trigger sharp repricing. Social media activity, training footage, or analyst commentary about either fighter's form can shift sentiment quickly. Betting action from known sharp bettors or unusual volume spikes often precede significant price moves. Weigh-in results and official fighter confirmations closer to fight day typically narrow uncertainty. Even minor news—coaching changes, opponent adjustments, or fighter statements—can move this market as traders recalibrate their edge and adjust their positions accordingly.