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$134.1b

24H VOL:

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2,388,728,490

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$1,423,222,590

402,751

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30,217

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

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61%

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UFC 329: Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yanez fight?

Volume:
$3,328,026

Adrian Yanez

 - Kalshi

Adrian Yanez - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 12, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 7:54 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Adrian Yanez

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$662,704
N/A
N/A
$507,176
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,826
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Yanez to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,550
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$36
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Cody Garbrandt

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,870,584
N/A
N/A
$1,747,125
Settled
No
polymarket

Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yanez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$764,375
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,657
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Garbrandt to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,620
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,536
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$36
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC 329 bantamweight preliminary bout between Cody Garbrandt and Adrian Yanez will end in 0.5 rounds or fewer. Aggregated data from Polymarket and Kalshi shows 100.0% consensus probability for the over/under 0.5 rounds threshold, per UFC.com official records. The fight is scheduled for July 11, 2026, with market resolution occurring after the bout concludes on that date.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's fight outcome market lacks explicit resolution criteria for draws, no-contests, and cancellations, while Polymarket specifies 50-50 resolution for these scenarios. This creates ambiguity on non-decisive fight results.Hero tip: Treat Polymarket's explicit 50-50 tie-break rules as the gold standard for edge cases. On Kalshi, assume non-decisive outcomes (draw, no-contest, cancellation) resolve to No unless platform documentation states otherwise. Cross-check with official UFC records at ufc.com/events before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Winner market (Garbrandt vs Yanez) resolves to named fighter if officially declared winner. Draw, technical draw, no-contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026 all resolve 50-50. All method-of-victory and round duration markets include explicit 50-50 tie-breaks for exact-threshold finishes and cancellations. Resolution source: official UFC information.
  • Kalshi: Fight outcome market resolves Yes if Adrian Yanez wins OR if Cody Garbrandt wins. No explicit criteria provided for draws, no-contests, cancellations, or postponements. Resolution source not specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Cody Garbrandt" if Cody Garbrandt is officially declared the winner of the fight against Adrian Yanez at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Adrian Yanez" if Adrian Yanez is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on the fight outcome occurring on or shortly after the originally scheduled date of July 11, 2026. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled bout concludes within two weeks. In the event of a tie or no contest, both fighters receive a 50/50 split resolution. Should the fight be cancelled or rescheduled beyond two weeks from the original date, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with established rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like these operate on crowd-sourced pricing, where traders buy and sell shares tied to outcomes, setting odds through supply and demand rather than bookmaker margins. Sportsbooks, by contrast, employ oddsmakers and adjust lines to balance liability. Prediction markets often reflect sharper, more distributed information—especially for niche events—since traders have direct financial skin in the game. However, sportsbooks may move faster on breaking news or injury reports. Comparing this market's odds to your preferred sportsbook can reveal value opportunities and help you gauge whether the crowd or the book is more bullish on either fighter.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Platform differences stem from distinct user bases, liquidity pools, and trading mechanics. Polymarket uses an automated market maker (AMM) model, which can create slippage and price sensitivity to large trades, while Kalshi employs order-book matching, allowing for tighter spreads when volume is present. Geographic and regulatory constraints may also steer different trader cohorts to each venue. Additionally, each platform's fee structure and settlement rules can influence how traders price tail outcomes. Monitoring both prices helps you identify arbitrage opportunities and understand which platform's crowd is more confident in a given outcome.

Key catalysts include fighter injury reports, training camp updates, and official UFC announcements regarding the bout. Weigh-in results and fighter commentary in the days leading up to the event often shift trader sentiment. Social media activity, analyst predictions, and historical head-to-head records can also influence pricing. Late-breaking news about either competitor's conditioning or personal circumstances may trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, if either fighter is involved in a high-profile win or loss in another event before this bout, market odds could shift significantly. Monitor official UFC channels and reputable MMA news outlets for developments that could reshape trader conviction.