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UFC 329: Cesar Almeida vs. Damian Pinas (Middleweight, Early Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the UFC 329 middleweight fight between Almeida and Pinas?

Volume:
$1,850,110

Damian Pinas

 - Kalshi

Damian Pinas - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 6:24 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Damian Pinas

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$468,331
N/A
N/A
$360,644
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Pinas to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,950
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$132
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.8¢
N/A
$85
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Cesar Almeida vs. Damian Pinas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$930,956
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Cesar Almeida

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$426,118
N/A
N/A
$377,118
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,031
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Almeida to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$649
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$534
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$284
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether Damian Pinas will win by knockout or technical knockout against Cesar Almeida in their UFC 329 middleweight early preliminary bout. The aggregated consensus across Polymarket and Kalshi shows 100.0% probability for this outcome, as resolved by official UFC records. Watch the live fight on July 11, 2026, to see whether the bout concludes via KO or TKO before the final bell.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi provides only a binary winner market with no method-of-victory or duration coverage, and lacks explicit edge-case resolution language. Polymarket offers comprehensive method and duration markets with detailed edge-case handling.Hero tip: Traders seeking full fight outcome exposure should use Polymarket's complete market set. Kalshi's binary winner market is a subset and does not address method of victory or round duration. Verify Kalshi's cancellation and No Contest policies independently, as they are not specified in provided documentation.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Seven distinct markets covering: (1) winner (Almeida vs Pinas), (2) submission finish, (3) Almeida KO/TKO, (4) any fighter KO/TKO, (5) fight goes distance, (6) over/under 0.5 rounds, (7) over/under 1.5 rounds, (8) over/under 2.5 rounds, (9) Pinas KO/TKO. All edge cases (No Contest, not scored, canceled, postponed beyond July 25, 2026) resolve to 50-50. Official UFC sources are resolution authority. Key quote: 'If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.'
  • Kalshi: Single binary market: resolves Yes if either Almeida or Pinas wins the fight scheduled for July 11, 2026. No method-of-victory or duration markets provided. No explicit edge-case language for No Contest, cancellation, or postponement. Key quote: 'If Cesar Almeida wins the Pinas vs Almeida professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jul 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Damian Pinas wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Cesar Almeida" if Cesar Almeida is officially declared the winner of the fight against Damian Pinas at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Damian Pinas" if Damian Pinas is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the winner of the Pinas vs Almeida professional MMA fight originally scheduled for July 11, 2026. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled fight concludes within two weeks. In the event of a tie or no contest, both fighter markets resolve to 50/50. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled beyond two weeks, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with the rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on real-money trading, where participants buy and sell shares tied to outcomes. Unlike traditional sportsbooks that set fixed lines and manage risk through juice, these platforms let supply and demand determine prices continuously. This often produces sharper, more responsive odds because traders have direct financial incentive to correct mispricings. Comparing this market's consensus to major sportsbook lines can reveal value or consensus shifts in how professionals view the matchup.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and regulatory frameworks. Polymarket operates on Ethereum and draws global crypto-native participants, while Kalshi is a US-regulated derivatives exchange with a distinct user base. Timing lags, fee structures, and order-book depth can cause temporary price gaps. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but brief divergences persist due to platform friction and the specialized nature of each venue's market microstructure.

Fighter injury reports, training camp updates, and official weigh-in results typically drive significant repricing. Betting action from professional syndicates and sharp money can shift odds sharply if new information emerges. Media coverage of either fighter's recent performance, coaching changes, or fight camp news may influence trader sentiment. As the event date approaches, late-breaking developments—such as opponent changes or fighter health concerns—can trigger rapid market moves. Real-time social media and MMA news outlets often signal these catalysts before they fully price in.