TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims)
Description
This market will resolve to "Cub Swanson" if Cub Swanson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Nate Landwehr at UFC 327: Procházka vs. Ulberg, scheduled for April 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Nate Landwehr" if Nate Landwehr is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves on any fight outcome (winner in any round), while Polymarket offers multiple specific outcome markets (KO/TKO, submission, distance, round duration). Kalshi's markets are binary on fight winner; Polymarket's markets are binary on method of victory or fight duration. These are fundamentally different settlement scopes.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on who wins the fight regardless of method or timing. If you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on specific fight outcomes (method of finish or round duration). A Kalshi YES (either fighter wins) does not directly correspond to any single Polymarket outcome—you must know the method and timing to map Kalshi to Polymarket. Hedge carefully across platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi offers six binary markets, each resolving YES if a specific fighter wins in a specific round (Swanson R1, R2, R3; Landwehr R1, R2, R3). No method-of-victory or duration markets are offered. Resolution is purely on fighter identity and round of victory, with no reference to KO/TKO, submission, or judges' decision.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers eight markets covering method of victory (KO/TKO by either fighter, submission, judges' decision/distance) and fight duration (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds), plus a head-to-head winner market. Each market resolves on specific fight outcome characteristics (finish method, round duration, or winner identity), not just round of victory.
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