TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC 327: Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Early Prelims)
Description
This market will resolve to "Charles Radtke" if Charles Radtke is officially declared the winner of the fight against Francisco Prado at UFC 327: Procházka vs. Ulberg, scheduled for April 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Francisco Prado" if Francisco Prado is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves on a binary outcome (either fighter wins), while Polymarket offers multiple granular markets covering specific fight outcomes (KO/TKO by each fighter, decision, submission, round duration). The platforms use different market structures and scopes, creating divergent settlement pathways.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on a simple binary: Radtke or Prado wins. On Polymarket, you can isolate specific outcomes like KO/TKO, decision, or submission. Your Kalshi YES resolves if either fighter wins; your Polymarket markets resolve only if the specific method matches. Hedge carefully across platforms if you want exposure to multiple outcomes.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi offers only a binary winner market with no method or round-duration specificity. The market resolves YES if 'Charles Radtke wins' OR 'Francisco Prado wins' the fight, with no granularity on how the fight ends. Quote: 'If Charles Radtke wins the Radtke vs Prado professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Apr 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Francisco Prado wins the Radtke vs Prado professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Apr 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket provides seven separate markets covering fight winner (generic), KO/TKO by Radtke, KO/TKO by Prado, decision/distance, submission, and round thresholds (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds). Each market has independent resolution criteria tied to specific fight outcomes and methods. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if Charles Radtke defeats Francisco Prado at UFC 327 by KO or TKO' and 'This market will resolve to Yes if the fight between Charles Radtke and Francisco Prado goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards.'
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