TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC 326: Sumudaerji vs. Jesus Aguilar (Flyweight, Early Prelims)
Volume:
$727,404
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the UFC 326 flyweight early preliminary bout between Su Mudaerji and Jesus Aguilar scheduled for March 7, 2026. Markets span winner determination, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), round duration thresholds, and fight distance completion across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms apply identical resolution logic tied to official UFC fight outcome, method classification, and round duration, with consistent 50-50 fallback for cancellations, postponements beyond March 21, 2026, no contests, and non-scoring events.
Primary resolution logic:
Official UFC information (ufc.com and UFC official records)Core resolution logic:
- Winner determination: Official UFC declaration of Su Mudaerji or Jesus Aguilar as victor; draws and technical draws resolve to 50-50 or split
- Method of victory: KO/TKO includes referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, and corner stoppage; submission includes tapout, verbal submission, and technical submission; decision requires judges' scorecards after full rounds
- Round duration: Over X.5 Rounds resolves Yes if fight continues past 2:30 of round (X+1); Under X.5 Rounds resolves Yes if fight ends before 2:30 of round (X+1); exact threshold times resolve 50-50
- Fight distance: Resolves Yes only if fight completes all scheduled rounds with judges' decision; technical decisions or technical draws before completion resolve No
- Cancellation/postponement: Any bout not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026 resolves 50-50 across all markets
- Disqualification: Resolves No for KO/TKO and submission markets; resolves 50-50 for winner determination if applicable
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Exact Round Threshold: If fight ends exactly at threshold time (e.g., 2:30 of Round 2 for 1.5 line), market resolves 50-50
- Technical Decision or Technical Draw: Resolves No for KO/TKO and submission markets; resolves 50-50 for winner determination; resolves No for Fight to Go Distance
- Draw or Judges' Decision Draw: Resolves 50-50 for winner determination; resolves Yes for Fight to Go Distance if all rounds completed; resolves No for KO/TKO and submission markets
- No Contest or Not Scored: All markets resolve 50-50
- Postponement Beyond March 21, 2026: All markets resolve 50-50; event must occur on or before March 21, 2026
Timing:
Resolution occurs on or immediately after official UFC announcement of fight outcome on March 7, 2026, or upon official UFC cancellation/postponement notice. All markets must resolve by March 21, 2026 deadline; any postponement beyond this date triggers 50-50 resolution across all markets.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.