TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card)
Volume:
$4,992,543
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the UFC 326 middleweight main card bout between Reinier de Ridder and Caio Borralho, scheduled for March 7, 2026. Markets span fight winner, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration thresholds, and whether the fight goes the distance.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets across Kalshi and Polymarket reference the same fight, event date, and official UFC resolution source, with identical edge-case handling for cancellations, postponements, No Contests, and technical draws.
Primary resolution logic:
Official UFC information (https://www.ufc.com/events)Core resolution logic:
- Fight Winner: Resolves to the fighter officially declared winner by UFC. If draw, technical draw, No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026, resolves 50-50.
- Method of Victory (KO/TKO): Resolves Yes if fight ends by KO, TKO, referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Resolves No if decision, submission, draw, or disqualification. Resolves 50-50 if No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026.
- Method of Victory (Submission): Resolves Yes if fight ends by submission, tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to hold). Resolves No if decision, KO/TKO, draw, or disqualification. Resolves 50-50 if No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026.
- Fight Duration (Over/Under thresholds): Over resolves Yes if fight continues past the specified round threshold (e.g., past 2:30 of Round 3 for 2.5 line). Under resolves Yes if fight ends before the threshold. Exact threshold times resolve 50-50. Resolves 50-50 if not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026.
- Fight to Go the Distance: Resolves Yes if fight completes all scheduled rounds and result determined by judges' scorecards (includes judge-decided draws). Resolves No if fight ends early by any method (KO/TKO, submission, disqualification, technical decision/draw before all rounds). Resolves 50-50 if No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026.
- Fighter-Specific Method Markets (Ridder/Borralho KO/TKO): Resolves Yes only if that specific fighter wins by KO/TKO. Resolves No if opponent wins, decision, submission, draw, or disqualification. Resolves 50-50 if No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Exact Round Threshold: If fight ends exactly at the threshold timestamp (e.g., 2:30 of Round 3 for 2.5 line), market resolves 50-50.
- Cancellation or Postponement: If bout is canceled or postponed beyond March 21, 2026, all markets resolve 50-50.
- No Contest or Not Scored: If bout is ruled No Contest or not scored, all markets resolve 50-50.
- Draw or Technical Draw: Fight Winner market resolves 50-50. Fight to Go the Distance resolves Yes if all rounds completed and judges' scorecards rendered a draw. Method markets (KO/TKO, submission) resolve No.
- Disqualification: Fight Winner resolves 50-50 if either fighter disqualified. Method markets (KO/TKO, submission) resolve No.
Timing:
Resolution occurs immediately upon official UFC announcement of fight outcome, method, and duration. All markets must resolve by March 21, 2026 deadline; if not resolved by then, all markets resolve 50-50.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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