TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC 326: Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober (Lightweight, Main Card)
Volume:
$3,230,398
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers multiple prediction markets for the UFC 326 lightweight main card bout between Michael Johnson and Drew Dober, scheduled for March 7, 2026. Markets span fighter outcome, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration (round overs/unders), and distance completion.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use official UFC records as the sole resolution authority, apply identical edge-case rules (No Contest, cancellation, or postponement beyond March 21, 2026 resolve to 50-50), and define fight outcomes and methods consistently across all markets.
Primary resolution logic:
Official UFC records and announcements (ufc.com)Core resolution logic:
- Fighter outcome resolves to the fighter officially declared the winner by UFC, or 50-50 if draw, technical draw, No Contest, or not scored
- KO/TKO method includes referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, and corner stoppage
- Submission method includes tapout, verbal submission, and technical submission (referee stoppage due to submission hold)
- Decision method resolves Yes only if fight goes full scheduled rounds and result determined by judges' scorecards; judges' draws count as Yes
- Fight duration (round overs/unders) resolves Over if fight continues past the specified round threshold (e.g., past 2:30 of Round 1 for 0.5 line); resolves Under if ends before threshold; exact threshold time = 50-50
- Disqualification of either fighter resolves KO/TKO and submission markets to No, but resolves main outcome to 50-50 if applicable
- Any bout ruled No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026 resolves all markets to 50-50
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Exact Round Threshold: If fight ends exactly at the threshold time (e.g., 2:30 of Round 2 for 1.5 line), that market resolves 50-50
- Technical Draw or Technical Decision: Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed resolve No on distance markets; judges' draws after full rounds resolve Yes on distance markets
- No Contest or Not Scored: All markets resolve 50-50 if bout is ruled No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026
- Disqualification: Disqualification of either fighter resolves method-of-victory markets (KO/TKO, submission) to No; main outcome resolves 50-50
- Draw by Judge Decision: Judges' draw after all scheduled rounds resolves Yes on distance market; main outcome resolves 50-50
Timing:
Resolution occurs immediately upon official UFC declaration of fight outcome. Cutoff for valid resolution is March 21, 2026; any postponement beyond this date triggers 50-50 resolution across all markets.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.