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400,720

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30,097

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2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$21,823,707

Charles Oliveira

 - Kalshi

Charles Oliveira - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 8, 2026

Closed: Mar 8, 4:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Charles Oliveira

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,221,301
N/A
N/A
$7,653,342
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,474,905
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$43,452
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$42,644
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,568
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 3.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,750
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 4.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,369
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$563
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Max Holloway

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,961,855
N/A
N/A
$5,002,274
Settled
No
polymarket

Oliveira to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,766
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Holloway to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,238
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,585
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,712
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This event group covers UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway, a lightweight main card bout scheduled for March 7, 2026. Markets span winner determination, method of victory (submission, KO/TKO), fight duration thresholds, and whether the fight goes the distance. Resolution depends on official UFC declaration of the fight outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's winner market logic is self-contradictory (both fighters resolve to Yes), making it fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket provides coherent categorical resolution. All other markets (method, duration) are unified across platforms.Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi winner markets; they contain a logical impossibility. Polymarket winner market is the only valid categorical resolution. For method-of-victory and duration markets, both platforms are consistent: official UFC determination, 50-50 on draw/no-contest/cancellation/postponement beyond March 21, 2026.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Winner markets state: 'If Max Holloway wins... resolves to Yes' AND 'If Charles Oliveira wins... resolves to Yes.' This is logically impossible; both outcomes cannot resolve to the same value. No mechanism provided for draws or cancellations.
  • Polymarket: Winner market resolves to 'Charles Oliveira' (if Oliveira wins), 'Max Holloway' (if Holloway wins), or '50-50' (draw, technical draw, no contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026). Categorical and mutually exclusive.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.