TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 26, 4:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether UCLA will win their college football game against Maryland by more than 2.5 points. Currently, the probability of UCLA winning by over 2.5 points on Kalshi is 93.0%. The resolution source for this market is the outcome of the UCLA vs Maryland college football game originally scheduled for September 26, 2026, specifically if UCLA wins by more than 11.5 points. Keep a close eye on the game itself on September 26, 2026, as the final score will determine the market’s resolution.
All markets resolve based on the official final point differential from the UCLA vs Maryland college football game scheduled for September 26, 2026. If UCLA wins by exceeding the specified margin, the corresponding 'UCLA wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes; if Maryland wins by exceeding its specified margin, the relevant 'Maryland wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Markets remain open and resolve based on final results if the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time. If the game does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of timing changes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market's prices are driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant disparity emerges between this market and sportsbook odds, it may indicate differing opinions on the likely outcome of the game. It's common to see prediction markets move more efficiently as new information becomes available, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities than those offered by sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the UCLA vs Maryland spread. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded and those with inaccurate predictions lose money. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to converge towards a fair and efficient representation of the event's likelihood.
This market is scheduled to resolve around Sep 26, 2026. The outcome will be determined by the final point spread of the UCLA vs Maryland game, verified against credible public reporting of the official results. The final score difference will be compared to the spread offered in this market to determine which side wins or loses. It’s important to note that the resolution relies on publicly available and verifiable game results, ensuring a transparent and reliable outcome for all participants.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game takes place. Any news regarding key player injuries for either UCLA or Maryland would likely cause significant movement. Changes in coaching strategies or unexpected weather conditions could also impact the perceived probabilities. Public sentiment, as reflected in polls or expert analyses, can also play a role, though the market is primarily driven by actual trading activity. Major shifts in betting action on Kalshi will directly affect the prices, creating opportunities for traders to react to new information.