TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 26, 4:58 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the margin of victory for either UCLA or Maryland specifically in the second half of their college football game. Each market corresponds to a different point threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team during that half.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second half of play, including any overtime periods. For UCLA markets, resolution occurs if UCLA wins the second half by more than the specified point margin. For Maryland markets, resolution occurs if Maryland wins the second half by more than the specified point margin. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the final official result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of game commencement timing.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own information and beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a significant amount of volume comes into the market. These differences can present opportunities for arbitrage, where traders attempt to profit from the price gap between the two.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability that the actual spread will fall on that side. As more traders buy contracts predicting a certain spread, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined entirely by supply and demand among traders on the Kalshi exchange.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread of the second half of the UCLA vs Maryland game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Successful contracts will be those predicting the correct side of the spread, and payouts will be determined by the contract price at the time of resolution. Traders should monitor official results to confirm the final outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the UCLA or Maryland teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, especially if they affect the style of play, could also move the market. Furthermore, as the game approaches, any late-breaking information about team strategies or starting lineups could cause shifts in trader sentiment and, therefore, the price of contracts in this market.