TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 75M
- Kalshi
Above 75M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 4, 2026
Closed: Jul 4, 2:30 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks Tyler, The Creator's worldwide streaming performance during the week of June 26 - July 02, 2026. Streaming data is collected from Luminate Data, LLC and published approximately 48 hours after the tracking period ends.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Tyler, The Creator's total worldwide streams during the June 26 - July 02, 2026 tracking week, as reported by Luminate Data, LLC. Each outcome corresponds to a specific streaming threshold, with resolution occurring if streams exceed the designated level. Data publication occurs approximately 48 hours after the tracking period concludes. Luminate Data, LLC serves as a neutral provider of market metrics and does not endorse, verify, or participate in prediction market outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money incentives, meaning traders who miscalculate streaming volume face direct financial loss. This mechanism often produces more disciplined forecasts than traditional analyst reports, which may carry institutional bias or limited data access. While analysts publish periodic estimates based on historical trends and industry models, this market aggregates dispersed trader knowledge continuously. Comparing the two reveals whether professional consensus aligns with market-derived probabilities—divergence often signals new information or market skepticism toward conventional wisdom.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares tied to specific streaming volume outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Share prices range from $0 to $1, with the spread between buy and sell orders reflecting uncertainty and liquidity. As new trades execute, prices adjust in real time, and the current mid-market price represents the platform's consensus probability. Higher prices indicate stronger trader conviction around that outcome occurring by the resolution date.
This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The specific streaming volume threshold or range that determines each outcome will be locked at market launch and clearly displayed on the contract details. Traders should review the exact outcome definitions before placing positions to ensure they understand which real-world result corresponds to each trading option.
Streaming volume can shift based on new music releases, chart performance, playlist placements, or viral social media moments involving the artist. Major platform algorithm changes or promotional campaigns may also influence weekly listening patterns. Industry reports, chart rankings, and real-time streaming data releases from services like Spotify or Apple Music typically trigger repricing as traders incorporate fresh information. Cultural events or media coverage can drive sudden spikes in listener interest, causing sharp market moves as participants adjust their positions.
