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Kalshi:
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Closed: Jun 26, 12:04 AM EST
Kalshi
This market predicts the total number of goals scored by both Turkiye and USA combined during the second half of their FIFA World Cup match scheduled for June 26, 2025. Bettors can wager on whether the combined goal total will exceed 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, or 3.5 goals.
Resolution is based on the total goals scored by Turkiye and USA combined during the second half of their professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for June 25, 2026. Only goals scored during the second half count toward this market. Separate outcomes resolve to Yes if the combined total exceeds 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, or 3.5 goals respectively. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders and often incorporate information faster than traditional analyst forecasts. While sports analysts may publish pregame projections based on team statistics and recent form, this market aggregates the collective judgment of participants who have financial incentive to be accurate. Comparing the implied probability here to published expert predictions can reveal where the crowd sees value or where consensus differs, though prediction markets and analyst models use different methodologies and data sources.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares representing different second-half scoring outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects supply and demand; as more traders expect a particular outcome, that contract's price rises and its implied probability increases. You can place limit or market orders to enter or exit your position, and the spread between bid and ask prices indicates liquidity and trading activity at any given moment.
This market resolves around Jun 26, 2026, once the Turkiye vs USA match concludes and the second-half total is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the combined points, goals, or runs scored by both teams during the second half only, excluding the first half and any overtime or extra periods unless explicitly specified by the market rules. Resolution occurs automatically once the final verified result is available.
Key injuries or roster changes announced before kickoff could shift expectations for second-half scoring pace and intensity. In-game momentum swings during the first half—such as an early red card, injury to a star player, or unexpected tactical adjustment—often influence trader expectations for the second half. Weather conditions, referee decisions, and team fatigue levels as the match progresses all feed into real-time repricing. Breaking news about team form, recent offensive or defensive trends, or head-to-head scoring history can also trigger significant market movement as traders update their probability estimates.