TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 4:48 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Turkiye and France, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined solely by the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Markets will resolve based on whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Turkiye or France wins the professional UEFA Nations League soccer match originally scheduled for September 25, 2026. Four distinct outcome thresholds are defined: Turkiye winning by more than 2.5 goals, Turkiye winning by more than 1.5 goals, France winning by more than 1.5 goals, and France winning by more than 2.5 goals. If the match concludes within these specified margins in favor of either team after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (but not including extra time or penalties), the corresponding market resolves to Yes. The event exclusively considers regular-time results, with no regard for extended play or penalty decisions. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of forecasters, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or public perception. Sportsbooks typically set initial lines to balance betting action, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information or analytical approaches. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook lines as new information becomes available, offering a unique perspective on the likely result.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Turkiye vs France match, specifically the spread. The outcome will be determined by the official results published by the governing body of the competition. Traders will be able to see the final settlement price and receive payouts based on their positions in the market once the outcome is officially confirmed.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or significant shifts in team form could impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or controversies surrounding the match could also lead to price movements. Major announcements from analysts or influential figures offering strong opinions on the likely outcome may also affect trading activity. Monitoring these signals can provide insights into potential shifts in the market's predictions.