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Tunisia vs. Guinea
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Tunisia vs. Guinea?

Volume:
$105,209

Tunisia

 - Kalshi

Tunisia - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 5, 2026

Closed: Jul 5, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tunisia

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$55,966
N/A
N/A
$33,976
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Tunisia vs. Guinea

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$14,871
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Guinea

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$34,371
N/A
N/A
$23,537
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This event group covers the outcome of a FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game between Tunisia and Guinea scheduled for July 5, 2026 at 8:00 AM EDT. Both Polymarket and Kalshi have created prediction markets on this matchup, with resolution tied to the final score including overtime.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction where both Tunisia win and Guinea win resolve to Yes, making the market fundamentally unresolvable. This is a data integrity failure that prevents proper settlement.Hero tip: Trade only on Polymarket for this event. Kalshi's market is logically broken and cannot be reliably settled. Request clarification from Kalshi before committing capital to their version.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary outcome market with mutually exclusive resolution: Tunisia win resolves to Tunisia, Guinea win resolves to Guinea. Handles edge cases with postponement (market remains open) and cancellation (50-50 split). Resolution based on final score including overtime.
  • Kalshi: Contains logical contradiction: both Tunisia win and Guinea win are stated to resolve to Yes. This violates binary market logic and makes settlement impossible. No clear handling of postponement or cancellation scenarios.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming FIBA WCQ Africa game, scheduled for July 5 at 8:00AM ET: If the Tunisia win, the market will resolve to "Tunisia". If the Guinea win, the market will resolve to "Guinea". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the final result of the Guinea vs Tunisia professional FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game scheduled for July 5, 2026 at 8:00 AM EDT. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and resolves after the rescheduled game concludes, provided the reschedule occurs within two weeks of the original date. Should the game be cancelled and not played, or rescheduled beyond two weeks from the original date, the market resolves to a fair price for each team in accordance with established rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price events differently. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets rely on trader consensus—real money flowing toward outcomes perceived as underpriced. This market reflects what thousands of independent traders believe will happen, often incorporating faster information flow than sportsbooks update their lines. Comparing this market's implied probability to your preferred sportsbook can reveal value opportunities if you spot meaningful divergence.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Platform differences in user base, liquidity depth, and fee structures can create temporary price gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi may attract traders with different risk appetites or information sets, causing one venue to price the outcome higher than the other. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but if liquidity is thin or trading restrictions apply, gaps can persist. Monitoring both platforms helps you identify which venue offers better value for your view.

Key injury announcements, lineup changes, or tactical shifts from either team can shift trader sentiment significantly. Recent form, head-to-head history, and tournament context all influence how the market reprices. Weather conditions on match day, late team news, and betting volume spikes often trigger sharp moves in the final hours. Monitoring team social media, official announcements, and sports news outlets helps you stay ahead of market-moving developments.