TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 6:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an international soccer qualifier between Tunisia and Botswana, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals each team scores during regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Different thresholds define winning conditions for each team based on goal differentials.
The event resolves based on the goal differential of the Tunisia vs Botswana AFCON Qualifiers match scheduled for September 28, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Four distinct outcomes are possible: Tunisia winning by more than 2.5 goals, Tunisia winning by more than 1.5 goals, Botswana winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Botswana winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each primary rule defines a specific threshold for victory, with the market resolving to 'Yes' for the corresponding outcome if the stated condition is met. All markets are independent, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league or ownership of associated trademarks, logos, and brand names.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, whereas this market is driven purely by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs about the Tunisia vs Botswana match. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook line is inaccurate, they can move the price on Kalshi to reflect their collective assessment. This can lead to opportunities for arbitrage or simply a more accurate representation of the event’s probability.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the spread in the Tunisia vs Botswana match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, which dynamically updates the market price. This creates a fluid and responsive market that attempts to accurately forecast the final result.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the Tunisia vs Botswana match, as determined by official sources, will be used to determine which side of the spread was covered. The resolution will be based on the official result of the match, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future events.
Several signals could significantly impact this market before Sep 28, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Tunisian or Botswanan team would likely cause movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match venue or referee assignments could also play a role. Essentially, any information that alters perceptions of the teams’ relative strengths or the likelihood of covering the spread has the potential to move the market.