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$134.1b

24H VOL:

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2,388,728,490

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405,232

Markets across

30,526

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

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61%

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Tulsa vs. Arkansas
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Tulsa vs. Arkansas?

Volume:
$1,052,539

Arkansas

 - Kalshi

Arkansas - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 27, 2026

Closed: Sep 26, 11:10 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Arkansas

View
100%
29%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$238,244
N/A
N/A
$142,093
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -7.5

View
100%
54%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$63,635
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -6.5

View
100%
46%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$19,310
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 39.5

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,208
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -4.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,123
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -5.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,338
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -21.5

View
100%
83%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,015
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -16.5

View
100%
72%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$781
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$719
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -11.5

View
100%
63%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$355
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -14.5

View
100%
70%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$170
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -10.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$150
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 35.5

View
100%
14%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$125
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -9.5

View
100%
57%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$108
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -15.5

View
100%
71%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Arkansas O/U 30.5

View
100%
56%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$85
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1H Spread -3.5

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
19¢
N/A
$76
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -13.5

View
100%
66%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$66
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -24.5

View
100%
87%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.8¢
N/A
$58
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1H Spread -2.5

View
100%
40%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
19¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -2.5

View
100%
34%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Tulsa

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$344,979
N/A
N/A
$218,599
Settled
No
polymarket

Tulsa vs. Arkansas

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$299,366
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 51.5

View
0%
48%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$63,851
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 49.5

View
0%
53%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,297
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 216

Intro

This market tracks the total number of 4th down conversions – over or under 0.5 – in the college football game between Tulsa and Arkansas. Currently, the consensus probability that Tulsa vs. Arkansas: Total 4th Down Conversions will be Over 0.5 is 100.0%. This aggregate reflects data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on data reported at https://www.ncaa.com/. Keep an eye on the game itself, scheduled for September 26th, as the outcome of this market will be determined by the actual number of successful 4th down attempts during the game.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market resolves to 'Yes' if either team wins, while Polymarket resolves to the specific winning team. This creates a fundamental difference in market scope.Hero tip: Focus on Polymarket markets for directional insight as Kalshi's market is effectively a 'will the game happen?' market.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if either Tulsa or Arkansas wins the game. Essentially a 'game completion' market.
  • Polymarket: Resolves to 'Tulsa' if Tulsa wins, and 'Arkansas' if Arkansas wins. A standard winner-takes-all market.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming college football game between Tulsa and Arkansas, scheduled for September 26 at 8:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tulsa" if Tulsa win the game. This market will resolve to "Arkansas" if Arkansas win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if the specified team wins the college football game originally scheduled for September 26, 2026. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original scheduled time, the market remains active and resolves based on the final outcome. In the event the game is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, the market resolves to a fair price. Kalshi clarifies that it is not associated with the NCAA, and all trademarks, logos, and brand names are property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on this market, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own modeling and risk management, while prediction markets are driven by actual money being wagered on outcomes. This can lead to discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It's common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate unexpected news than sportsbooks, offering a potentially more dynamic assessment of probabilities.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds by directly bidding on potential outcomes, while Kalshi uses a different mechanism. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. This difference in market structure can lead to price variations, even when both platforms are tracking the same event. Additionally, each platform attracts a different user base with varying levels of expertise and information, which can influence trading behavior. Volume differences between the two platforms – currently $1,052,539 overall – can also contribute to price discrepancies, as lower volume may mean prices are more susceptible to individual trades.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries, coaching changes, or significant shifts in team performance would likely cause price movement. Unexpected weather conditions or controversies surrounding the game could also influence trading activity. Public sentiment, as reflected in media coverage and social media, can also play a role, particularly as the game approaches. Major upsets in other related games could also indirectly affect predictions, as bettors adjust their overall risk assessment and reallocate funds.