TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 5, 7:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance difference between Tulane and Duke specifically during the third quarter of their college football game. Each market corresponds to different point spreads that either team must exceed to determine the outcome.
These markets resolve based on the point differential in favor of either Tulane or Duke exclusively during the third quarter of the game scheduled for September 5, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the specified team wins that quarter by more than the stated point spread—ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the official result. Should the game fail to commence within this window, the markets settle at a fair price. All scoring considered pertains solely to the third quarter, and Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the NCAA.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially closer to the event. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to profit from public perception, while this market aggregates diverse opinions. However, initial sportsbook lines often influence early trading activity. It's common to see this market and sportsbook odds converge as the event approaches and more information becomes available, though discrepancies can still occur due to differing market participants and motivations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the Tulane vs Duke 3rd quarter spread. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the contract price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the event draws nearer, providing a real-time assessment of potential results.
This market resolves around Sep 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the third quarter of the Tulane vs Duke game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result as reported by the governing sports authority. The market will determine which contract corresponds to the actual spread, and those holding the winning contracts will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution. The final score will be the determining factor for this market.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Tulane or Duke teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they could impact the style of play, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could lead to adjustments in the perceived probabilities. Public sentiment and large bets from informed traders can also contribute to price fluctuations in this market, as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions.