TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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TSG Hawks vs. Fubon Guardians
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of TSG Hawks vs. Fubon Guardians?

Volume:
$211,941

Fukuoka Hawks

 - Kalshi

Fukuoka Hawks - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 11, 2026

Closed: Sep 5, 3:54 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Fukuoka Hawks

View
100%
57%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$87,746
N/A
N/A
$67,334
Settled
Yes
polymarket

TSG Hawks vs. Fubon Guardians

View
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0.7¢
0.7¢
N/A
$307
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Saitama Seibu Lions

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$123,888
N/A
N/A
$76,898
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of a single Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) game between the TSG Hawks and the Fubon Guardians, predicting which team will win. Currently, the consensus probability favors TSG Hawks vs. Fubon Guardians at 50.0%. This aggregate view combines data from Kalshi and Polymarket, with resolution based on the official results reported at https://www.cpbl.com.tw/. Be sure to watch for the game’s completion on September 18, 2026, as this date represents the end of the betting period and the expected resolution of the market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi is resolving on a different baseball game entirely (Saitama Seibu Lions vs Fukuoka Hawks) while Polymarket is resolving on the intended game (TSG Hawks vs. Fubon Guardians).Hero tip: Do not trade the Kalshi market. It is fundamentally flawed and will resolve based on an unrelated event. Focus exclusively on the Polymarket market.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the winner of the TSG Hawks vs. Fubon Guardians game on September 11th. If postponed, market remains open. If canceled/tie, resolves 50-50. "If the TSG Hawks win, the market will resolve to "TSG Hawks". If the Fubon Guardians win, the market will resolve to "Fubon Guardians".
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if either the Saitama Seibu Lions or Fukuoka Hawks win their game on September 5, 2026. This is unrelated to the TSG Hawks vs. Fubon Guardians game. "If Saitama Seibu Lions wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Fukuoka Hawks wins...then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming CPBL game, scheduled for September 11 at 6:35AM ET: If the TSG Hawks win, the market will resolve to "TSG Hawks". If the Fubon Guardians win, the market will resolve to "Fubon Guardians". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the CPBL. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Markets resolve to Yes if the specified team wins the Japan NPB game originally scheduled for Sep 5, 2026 at 1:00 AM EDT. If the game is postponed or delayed, markets remain open until the rescheduled game concludes within two days. Cancellations or reschedules exceeding two days result in fair price resolution. Ties resolve markets to 50/50.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets allow anyone to express their belief about the outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly diverges from expert opinion. However, both aim to accurately forecast the probability of events, and both can be valuable tools for informed decision-making.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi for this market can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base, trading volume, and fee structure, all of which influence price discovery. Additionally, the way each platform handles margin requirements and order types can create temporary imbalances. Differences in information access or interpretation among traders on each platform can also contribute to price discrepancies. These variations are normal and reflect the independent price discovery processes occurring on each venue.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Key player injuries, unexpected team performance shifts, or major coaching changes could all influence trader sentiment and shift probabilities. Significant news regarding team finances or off-field controversies might also play a role. Furthermore, the results of upcoming games and series will be closely watched, as they provide direct evidence of each team's championship potential. Any developments that alter perceptions of a team’s likelihood of winning will likely be reflected in the market prices.