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Türkiye vs. United States - First Team to Score
polymarket
kalshi

Türkiye vs. United States - First Team to Score

Volume:
$290,466

USA

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 26, 2026

Closed: Jun 25, 10:39 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

USA

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$138,379
N/A
N/A
$110,870
Settled
Yes
polymarket

United States

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$25,096
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Turkiye

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$54,385
N/A
N/A
$51,118
Settled
No
polymarket

Türkiye

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,603
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

No Goal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$43,452
N/A
N/A
$39,222
Settled
No
polymarket

Neither

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,552
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers prediction markets on which team scores first in the Türkiye vs. United States FIFA World Cup match scheduled for June 25, 2026. Markets are offered on both Kalshi and Polymarket with differing scope and resolution windows.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Temporal scope divergence: Kalshi includes extra time and penalty shootouts in first-goal determination, while Polymarket explicitly limits resolution to 90 minutes plus stoppage time only. Additionally, Kalshi's resolution logic contains a logical inconsistency where all three outcomes (Türkiye first, USA first, or no goal) resolve to YES.Hero tip: Identify which platform's scope matches your trading thesis. If you believe a goal will be scored in extra time, Kalshi treats this as YES (first goal scored), but Polymarket would resolve to Neither. Kalshi's three-way YES resolution suggests a data entry error—verify the actual market structure before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three-way market (Türkiye / United States / Neither) resolving only on goals scored within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shootouts explicitly excluded. Resolution source is official governing body statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours of match conclusion.
  • Kalshi: Appears to be structured as three separate YES/NO outcomes, but all three conditions resolve to YES: USA first goal = YES, Türkiye first goal = YES, no goal = YES. Includes entire game duration including extra time and penalty periods. This logical structure is internally inconsistent.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming match between Türkiye and United States, scheduled for June 25, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Türkiye" if Türkiye are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "United States" if United States are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on which team records the first goal during the entire match (regulation, stoppage time, and any extra time periods) of the Turkiye vs USA professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 25, 2026. If the first goal is an own goal, the market resolves based on the team awarded the goal. If no goal is scored throughout the entire match, the No Goal outcome resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed odds set by a sportsbook. Traders buy and sell shares reflecting their belief in each outcome, allowing prices to adjust continuously based on new information. Sportsbooks, by contrast, set odds to balance liability and extract margin. Prediction market prices often incorporate sharper, more granular data because traders risk real capital on accuracy. This can make them more responsive to late-breaking team news, injury reports, or tactical shifts than traditional sportsbook lines, though both reflect underlying probability estimates.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct regulatory frameworks, fee structures, and user bases, which naturally produces price variation. Polymarket and Kalshi may attract traders with different information sets, risk tolerances, or time horizons. Liquidity depth varies between venues; lower volume on one platform can amplify price swings from large trades. Settlement rules, withdrawal policies, and interface design also influence how quickly traders react to news. Arbitrage opportunities occasionally emerge, but transaction costs and platform friction often prevent perfect convergence, allowing modest spreads to persist.

Key catalysts include team lineups and injury announcements, which can shift offensive firepower and defensive stability. Tactical adjustments or coaching changes alter how aggressively each side attacks early in the match. Recent form, head-to-head history, and player fitness updates all influence trader expectations. Weather conditions and venue factors may favor one team's style of play. Late-breaking news—such as a star player's availability or a surprise substitution—can trigger sharp repricing. Betting syndicates and sharp money flowing into either side also signal conviction shifts that ripple across both platforms.