TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Trabzonspor vs. Çaykur Rizespor
Volume:
$142,026
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Turkish Super Lig soccer match between Trabzonspor and Çaykur Rizespor scheduled for March 14, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket assess the match outcome (win/loss/draw) based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure is logically incomplete (all outcomes resolve Yes, creating an impossible tautology), and Polymarket's cancellation rules are internally contradictory across its three markets. Additionally, Polymarket's draw-market cancellation rule (resolves Yes) directly conflicts with its win-market rules (resolve No), making simultaneous settlement impossible.Hero Tip:
This divergence creates unresolvable settlement risk. Do not trade these markets until Kalshi clarifies its tautological structure and Polymarket reconciles its cancellation logic. If the match is canceled, Polymarket traders face a guaranteed loss on at least one market leg. Request explicit cancellation guidance from both platforms before March 14, 2026.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Market structure states: 'If Trabzonspor wins... resolves to Yes. If Rizespor wins... resolves to Yes. If Tie... resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical tautology where all possible outcomes resolve Yes, making the market unresolvable. No explicit cancellation or postponement clause provided.
- Polymarket: Three separate markets with conflicting cancellation rules: (1) Draw market resolves Yes if canceled with no makeup. (2) Trabzonspor win market resolves No if canceled with no makeup. (3) Rizespor win market resolves No if canceled with no makeup. Postponement keeps all markets open. This creates a logical impossibility where a single cancellation event produces contradictory resolutions across linked markets.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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