TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
158-171m
- Polymarket
158-171m - Polymarket
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 25, 2026
Closed: Jun 22, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to how much "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (June 19 - June 21) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (June 19 - June 21) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader expectations, which often diverge from traditional analyst estimates and studio guidance. While box office analysts typically rely on historical comps, franchise trends, and marketing spend, prediction markets incorporate live sentiment and betting patterns. Comparing the implied probability from Polymarket traders to published forecasts from industry analysts like Box Office Pro or Deadline can reveal whether the market is pricing in optimism or caution relative to expert consensus. This gap often signals where information asymmetry or disagreement exists.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the "Toy Story 5" opening weekend box office is priced as a set of outcome brackets, each with an individual contract reflecting the probability traders assign to that range. Prices move continuously as new trades execute, with higher-priced contracts indicating outcomes the market views as more likely. Liquidity and spreads vary by outcome; some brackets may trade tighter than others depending on trader conviction. The price of each contract directly represents the market's real-time belief about that specific box office outcome occurring.
The market resolves on Jun 22, 2026, after the opening weekend box office figures are officially reported. Resolution is determined by the actual domestic opening weekend gross for "Toy Story 5," which typically includes Friday through Sunday (and Monday if a holiday). The final box office number is cross-checked against authoritative industry sources to confirm which outcome bracket the actual result falls into. Once verified, the corresponding outcome contract settles to 100 cents and all other brackets settle to zero.
Key catalysts include trailer releases, critic reviews, and early audience reactions from preview screenings. Pixar's marketing spend, competitor release timing, and broader summer box office trends will influence trader expectations. Real-world factors like theater availability, holiday weekends, and macroeconomic conditions affecting consumer spending also matter. Franchise sentiment—driven by nostalgia for earlier Toy Story films and reception of recent Pixar releases—can shift odds significantly. As June 2026 approaches, each new data point about pre-sales, social media buzz, or industry commentary may trigger repricing on Polymarket.
