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"Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office
polymarket

How much will Toy Story 5 gross domestically in its second weekend?

Volume:
$105,520

69-73m

 - Polymarket

69-73m - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 29, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

69-73m

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$24,136
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

65-69m

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$33,573
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

73-77m

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,454
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

>77m

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,568
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<65m

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,788
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to how much "Toy Story 5" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (June 26 - June 28) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to how much "Toy Story 5" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (June 26 - June 28) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Toy Story 5 second weekend box office market displays real-time odds on whether the film's second weekend domestic box office will exceed $77 million. Traders can monitor current probability estimates, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume of $16,806 as participants buy and sell shares reflecting their forecasts. The interface shows live bid-ask spreads and cumulative trading activity, giving you a transparent view of how the prediction market is pricing this specific box office outcome as release approaches.

Prediction markets aggregate the collective judgment of traders with real financial stakes, often diverging from traditional analyst estimates. While box office analysts may rely on historical comps, marketing spend, and franchise momentum, this market reflects live consensus pricing updated continuously as new information emerges. Comparing the current odds here to published forecasts from studios or industry analysts can reveal where traders see upside or downside risk relative to expert opinion. Both sources offer value, but prediction markets capture dynamic, incentive-driven expectations that shift as opening weekend results and early reviews become available.

This market resolves around Jun 29, 2026, once the second weekend box office figures are finalized and verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by whether the domestic box office total for Toy Story 5's second weekend falls above or below the $77 million threshold. Resolution typically occurs within days of the close of the second weekend, allowing traders to settle positions once official studio reports and box office tracking services confirm the final number. No ambiguity exists in the measurement—the outcome hinges on a single, publicly reported figure.

Opening weekend box office performance is the strongest near-term catalyst; a stronger-than-expected debut typically signals stronger legs and a higher second weekend. Critical reviews, audience scores on platforms like Rotten Tomatoes and CinemaScore, and social media sentiment can shift trader expectations about repeat viewership. Competitive releases or major events during the second weekend window may also influence turnout. Additionally, any franchise news, casting announcements, or broader entertainment industry trends could reshape how traders assess the film's staying power and likelihood of crossing the $77 million second-weekend mark.