TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Tour De France 2026: Winner
polymarket

Who will win the 2026 Tour De France?

Volume:
$1,322,879

Tadej Pogačar

 - Polymarket

Tadej Pogačar - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 27, 2026

Closed: Jul 26, 9:22 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Tadej Pogačar

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$439,649
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Jonas Vingegaard

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$237,900
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Remco Evenepoel

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$146,448
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Paul Seixas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$130,854
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Isaac del Toro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$114,839
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Florian Lipowitz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$68,562
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Juan Ayuso

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$57,771
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tom Pidcock

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31,005
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Richard Carapaz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,329
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Egan Bernal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,104
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Adam Yates

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,993
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Michael Storer

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,279
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Mattias Skjelmose

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,783
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Sepp Kuss

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,942
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Cian Uijtdebroeks

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,579
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ben O'Connor

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,579
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Derek Gee-West

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,479
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tobias Halland Johannessen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,804
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Thymen Arensman

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,804
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Kévin Vauquelin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,804
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Antonio Tiberi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,479
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ben Healy

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$593
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Jai Hindley

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$579
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Valentin Paret-Peintre

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$579
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lenny Martinez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$493
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 113

Intro

This market tracks whether Tadej Pogačar will win the 2026 Tour De France on Polymarket, currently showing a probability of 99.9% for Pogačar and 0.2% for Remco Evenepoel. The outcome will be resolved based on official UCI declarations and credible reporting consensus. The market will resolve by August 9, 2026, following the official race period from July 4 to July 26, 2026, and any necessary post-race evaluations according to UCI rules.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the cyclist that wins the 2026 Tour De France scheduled for July 4, 2026 through July 26, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed cyclist to win the 2026 Men Elite at the Tour De France per the rules of the UCI, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 Tour De France is cancelled, or postponed after August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from UCI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Tour de France 2026 winner market dashboard displays real-time odds and price history for each cyclist competing to win the race. The interface tracks current implied probabilities for all listed contenders, allowing traders to monitor how confidence in each rider shifts as new information emerges. You can also view 24-hour trading volume and recent transaction activity to gauge market momentum. This dashboard provides a live snapshot of how the prediction market is pricing each competitor's chances of claiming the yellow jersey in 2026.

Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their liability and profit margin, while prediction markets aggregate beliefs from traders risking real capital on outcomes. This market may show tighter spreads or different favorite rankings than traditional sportsbooks, especially as new training data, team rosters, or course details emerge. Comparing the two can reveal where consensus differs and highlight potential value opportunities for informed bettors.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling shares representing each cyclist's probability of winning. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price for any rider reflects the collective assessment of all active traders, with each transaction updating the implied odds in real time. As new race information surfaces—training form, team strategy, course conditions—traders adjust their positions, causing prices to shift. This continuous price discovery mechanism ensures the market remains responsive to developments leading up to the 2026 Tour.

This market resolves around Aug 9, 2026, once the 2026 Tour de France concludes and the winner is officially confirmed. The outcome will be verified against credible public sources reporting the final race results. Until that date, prices will fluctuate as traders incorporate training updates, team announcements, injury reports, and other signals that affect each cyclist's winning chances. Resolution occurs only after the event is complete and the champion is publicly announced.

Several catalysts can shift prices significantly before the race begins. Major injuries or withdrawals by top contenders will immediately reprrice the field. Team roster announcements, coaching changes, and pre-race training camps provide clues about form and strategy. Course details and weather forecasts closer to July 2026 matter greatly, as climbers and sprinters respond differently to terrain. Early-season race results and performance at other Grand Tours will also influence trader confidence. Media coverage of favorites and underdog storylines can sway sentiment and drive volume spikes.