TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the halftime result of a Ligue 1 soccer match between Toulouse FC and Olympique de Marseille scheduled for March 7, 2026. Three mutually exclusive outcomes are offered across platforms: Toulouse leading, Marseille leading, or a draw at the 45-minute mark plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms resolve based on the identical halftime scoreline (45 minutes plus stoppage time) from official Ligue 1 sources. The apparent structural difference between Polymarket's mutually exclusive binaries and Kalshi's independent confirmations is a presentation choice, not a logical divergence—all markets will resolve consistently with the actual halftime result.
Primary resolution logic:
Official Ligue 1 statistics and match records as recognized by the French football governing body (FFF) or Ligue 1 organizers. If official statistics are not published within 24 hours of match conclusion, credible consensus reporting may be used.Core resolution logic:
- Resolution is determined by the score at the end of the first 45 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time awarded by the referee
- Exactly one of three outcomes will occur: Toulouse leading (more goals than Marseille), Marseille leading (more goals than Toulouse), or Draw (equal goals)
- On Polymarket, exactly one of the three binary markets resolves Yes; the other two resolve No
- On Kalshi, the market corresponding to the actual outcome resolves Yes; the other two resolve No
- If the match is postponed, both platforms remain open until the match is completed
- If the match is canceled with no makeup game, all markets resolve No
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Match Postponement: Both platforms keep markets open until the match is completed. No early resolution occurs.
- Match Cancellation: If the match is canceled entirely with no makeup game scheduled, all halftime result markets resolve No across both platforms.
- Stoppage Time Inclusion: Resolution is based on the score after 45 minutes plus stoppage time as determined by the referee. Goals scored during stoppage time count toward the halftime result.
- Official Source Delay: If Ligue 1 or FFF does not publish official statistics within 24 hours, credible consensus reporting from major sports news outlets may be used for resolution.
Timing:
Resolution occurs after the completion of the first half (45 minutes plus stoppage time) of the match on March 7, 2026. Both platforms will resolve within 24 hours of the match conclusion, or sooner if official statistics are published immediately.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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