TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 8, 12:19 AM EST
Kalshi
This baseball game between Toronto and San Francisco on July 7, 2026 will be analyzed for the margin of victory. Bettors can wager on whether one team will win by more than a specified number of runs.
Resolution is determined by the final margin of victory in the professional baseball game scheduled for July 7, 2026 at 9:45 PM EDT. Each market outcome specifies which team must win and by how many runs, with resolution to Yes if that team wins by more than the specified margin. The game's official final score determines the winning team and the run differential between them.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate beliefs from traders who profit by forecasting accurately. This market may show different implied probabilities than traditional sportsbooks, particularly as game day approaches and new information surfaces. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd on Kalshi sees value that bookmakers have priced differently.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different spread outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the collective belief of active traders at any moment. As new developments occur—injuries, lineup changes, or betting trends—traders adjust their positions, moving the price up or down. This dynamic pricing ensures the market stays responsive to real-world information throughout the trading period.
This market resolves around Jul 8, 2026, once the Toronto versus San Francisco game concludes and the final spread is verified. The outcome is confirmed against credible public sources reporting the official result and point differential. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome receive their payout, while losing positions expire worthless. The exact resolution timing depends on when the game finishes and the score is officially recorded.
Key catalysts include roster announcements, injury reports, and betting line movements from major sportsbooks, which often signal sharp money entering the market. Weather conditions, travel schedules, and team momentum shifts can also influence trader positioning. Media narratives and expert predictions may sway sentiment, particularly as game day approaches. Trading volume spikes typically occur during significant news drops or in the final hours before kickoff, when late-arriving information drives repricing across the spread.