TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 8, 5:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This baseball game between Toronto and San Francisco on July 8, 2026 will be analyzed for the score after exactly seven innings of play. Bettors predict which team will be ahead or whether the score will be tied at that point.
Resolution is based on the score at the end of the first seven innings of the professional baseball game scheduled for July 8, 2026 at 3:45 PM EDT. Toronto outcomes resolve to Yes if Toronto leads after seven innings; San Francisco outcomes resolve to Yes if San Francisco leads after seven innings. If the score is tied after seven innings, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and all team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game finishes within two days.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets like this one are driven by traders seeking to profit on their forecasts. Prediction markets can sometimes offer sharper or more efficient pricing because traders have direct financial exposure to accuracy. Comparing this market's implied probability to major sportsbook lines on the same event can reveal where the two venues disagree and highlight potential value.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares representing each possible outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome fluctuates based on supply and demand; when more traders buy shares predicting one result, that outcome's price rises and its implied probability increases. You can enter limit or market orders to trade at your preferred price, and the market's price discovery process aggregates the collective forecast of all active participants into a single, transparent probability for the first seven innings result.
This market resolves around Jul 8, 2026, once the first seven innings of the Toronto vs San Francisco game are complete and the result is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome will reflect the final score or winner determined by official game records at that point. Until resolution, you can continue to trade your position, allowing you to lock in gains, cut losses, or adjust your exposure as new information emerges closer to game time.
Several factors can shift prices in this market before it resolves. Lineup announcements, injury reports, or roster changes for either team can alter expectations about offensive and defensive strength. Weather conditions at game time—wind speed, temperature, and humidity—affect ball carry and pitcher performance. Recent form, head-to-head matchup history, and bullpen availability also influence trader sentiment. Breaking news about player availability or unexpected roster moves can trigger sharp repricing. As game time approaches, any late-developing information tends to move the market most sharply.