TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 22, 9:53 PM EST
Kalshi
Two women's pro basketball teams compete in a match scheduled for September 22, 2026. The outcome depends solely on which team leads at the end of the second half of regular play, excluding any overtime periods. If neither team leads, the result is considered a tie.
Markets resolve based on the second half winner of regulation time in the specified women's pro basketball game, excluding overtime. Points scored only during the second half count. If both teams score equally, all team outcomes resolve to No and the Tie outcome resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed or delayed, markets remain open until the rescheduled game concludes within two days; if not played or rescheduled beyond this window, markets resolve at a fair price.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action, while this market allows participants to directly express their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. Analyzing these differences can provide insights into where the crowd and professional oddsmakers disagree about the likely outcome of the game and the second half winner.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a particular team, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of success. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts to new information and changing sentiment, providing a real-time assessment of the potential winner of the second half.
This market resolves around Sep 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The team leading at the end of the second half will be declared the winner. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and final scores as reported by the relevant sporting authorities. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final result.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected performance during the first half of the game will likely have a substantial impact, as will any in-game adjustments made by either team. Major shifts in public opinion, reflected in polls or analyst predictions, could also drive price movements. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding how the market evolves leading up to the final result.