TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 22, 9:25 PM EST
Kalshi
The same two teams from the first event face off again, but this time the market focuses on the first half of the game. The winner is determined by which team scores more points in the first half of regular play, with ties resulting in a tie outcome.
Markets resolve based on the first half winner of regulation time in the specified women's pro basketball game. Points scored only during the first half count. If both teams score equally, all team outcomes resolve to No and the Tie outcome resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed or delayed, markets remain open until the rescheduled game concludes within two days; if not played or rescheduled beyond this window, markets resolve at a fair price.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks may set lines to attract balanced betting action, while this market allows participants to express their true beliefs about the outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Examining these differences can provide insights into where the market finds value relative to traditional betting options.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the probability of each outcome. The price of a contract directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the event's likelihood. The market depth indicates the volume of contracts available at different price points, offering insight into the strength of conviction behind various predictions.
This market resolves around Sep 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The team leading at the end of the first half of the game will be declared the winner of this market. Official game statistics and results will be used to determine the winning team, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders will be able to claim their winnings based on the final result.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could shift the perceived probabilities. Unexpected performance in earlier games, or significant media coverage highlighting a team’s strengths or weaknesses, could also drive price movements. Additionally, large trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and impact the odds, as traders react to new information or adjust their positions based on evolving sentiment.