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Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings: Blue Jays or Giants?

Volume:
$5,263,304

Over 7.5 runs scored

 - Kalshi

Over 7.5 runs scored - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 8, 2026

Closed: Jul 8, 6:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Over 7.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,440,944
N/A
N/A
$546,386
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 6.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$717,828
N/A
N/A
$327,499
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 8.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$554,161
N/A
N/A
$233,823
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 9.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$420,101
N/A
N/A
$176,946
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 5.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$284,059
N/A
N/A
$102,734
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 3.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$73,469
N/A
N/A
$37,885
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 1.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$51,416
N/A
N/A
$49,141
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 4.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$32,826
N/A
N/A
$13,894
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 2.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,395
N/A
N/A
$10,472
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Toronto Blue Jays

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.8¢
N/A
$263
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 10.5 runs scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$780,560
N/A
N/A
$358,548
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 11.5 runs scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$773,359
N/A
N/A
$247,211
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 12.5 runs scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$90,256
N/A
N/A
$67,497
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 14.5 runs scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,363
N/A
N/A
$8,277
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 13.5 runs scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,150
N/A
N/A
$6,545
Settled
No
polymarket

San Francisco Giants

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$141
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the first five innings of the MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants. Across Kalshi and Polymarket, the aggregated consensus shows 99.0% probability for the leading outcome. Resolution will be determined by official MLB statistics, with credible reporting used as a secondary source if final statistics are not published within 24 hours of the game's conclusion. Watch the game on July 8, 2026 at 3:45 PM ET, as the score at the end of the 5th inning will determine the final resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different events: Polymarket resolves on which team is ahead after 5 innings (winner determination), while Kalshi resolves on cumulative runs scored by both teams combined (run total thresholds). These are orthogonal outcomes.Hero tip: Treat these as two independent markets. A 3-2 Blue Jays lead resolves Polymarket to Blue Jays but Kalshi to Yes on 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, and 5.5 run thresholds. Build separate models: one for win probability by inning 5, one for run-scoring pace. Do not hedge one against the other.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three-way winner market resolving on which team leads at the end of the 5th inning. Outcomes: Toronto Blue Jays (if leading), San Francisco Giants (if leading), or Draw (if tied). Postponed games remain open until 5th inning is completed; canceled games with no makeup resolve 50-50. Primary source: official MLB final statistics or credible reporting consensus within 24 hours.
  • Kalshi: Ten separate over/under markets on combined runs scored by both teams in the first 5 innings, with thresholds at 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5, 10.5, and 11.5 runs. Each resolves Yes if combined total exceeds the threshold, No otherwise. No explicit handling of postponement or cancellation stated.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants, scheduled for July 8 at 3:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the total combined runs scored by both Toronto and San Francisco in the professional baseball game scheduled for July 8, 2026 at 3:45 PM EDT. Each outcome corresponds to a specific run threshold, with resolution to Yes occurring when the combined total exceeds that threshold. The thresholds range progressively from 1.5 runs through 11.5 runs, allowing bettors to wager on different levels of offensive output. The final official score at the end of nine innings determines resolution.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on peer-to-peer pricing rather than traditional sportsbook margins. Instead of a bookmaker setting fixed lines, traders themselves determine odds through continuous buying and selling, which often reflects sharper, crowd-sourced probability estimates. Sportsbooks build in juice and manage liability across balanced books, whereas prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from many participants. This can result in tighter spreads and faster price discovery on this market, though liquidity and volume affect how closely either reflects true event probability.

Polymarket and Kalshi may price this market differently due to distinct user bases, liquidity pools, and trading mechanics. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform also attracts traders with different risk appetites and information sets, and order-book depth varies between venues. Regulatory frameworks and settlement procedures can also influence how traders perceive and price the same outcome. Comparing both platforms helps identify arbitrage opportunities and reveals where consensus is strongest across the prediction market ecosystem.

Key catalysts include injury reports or roster changes to either team's starting pitcher or top hitters, which directly impact early-game scoring potential. Weather conditions at game time—wind speed, temperature, and humidity—affect ball carry and can favor one team's offensive profile. Betting market shifts and sharp money flow often precede prediction market moves, signaling professional assessment of matchup dynamics. Pregame commentary from analysts and any last-minute lineup adjustments will also influence trader positioning as the game approaches.