TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 6, 9:45 PM EST
Polymarket
This event group tracks two MLB prediction markets for the July 6, 9:45 PM ET matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants: one resolves on the game winner, and another on whether at least one run scores in the first inning. Across Polymarket and Predict, the consensus probability for the Giants covering the spread at -7.5 stands at 100.0%. Resolution will be determined by official MLB final statistics as recognized by MLB.com, with credible reporting consensus serving as fallback if stats are not published within 24 hours of game conclusion. Watch for the final official box score publication on July 6 to confirm settlement.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants, scheduled for July 6 at 9:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game. This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants, scheduled for July 6 at 9:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game. This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price outcomes using different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous order flow. This market reflects what thousands of independent predictors believe will happen, often incorporating information faster than sportsbooks adjust their lines. Comparing the two can reveal value: if this market's implied probability diverges significantly from a sportsbook's odds, it may signal an opportunity or highlight where public opinion and professional oddsmakers disagree.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity levels, and fee structures, which naturally produces price variation. Polymarket may have deeper liquidity in certain outcomes, allowing large trades to move prices less; Predict might see different user activity patterns or regional participation. Regulatory differences and platform-specific rules also influence how traders position themselves. These gaps typically narrow closer to resolution as arbitrageurs exploit mispricings, but they create real opportunities for informed traders monitoring both venues simultaneously.
Key catalysts include injury announcements, lineup changes, weather updates, and recent team performance trends. If either team's star player is ruled out, this market will likely shift sharply. Betting action from professional syndicates can also move odds significantly, signaling where smart money is positioned. Pre-game commentary, Vegas line movements, and social media sentiment occasionally trigger retail trader repositioning. Monitor official team announcements and sports news closely, as any material development affecting game conditions or player availability will ripple through prediction prices before the first pitch.