TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$143,246,370
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,403,290,006
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,452,035,386
405,032
Markets across
30,543
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,690
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 30, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event concerns which song will hold the top position on the Daily Top Songs USA chart on a specific date in May 2026. Multiple songs are identified as potential outcomes for the top-ranked position in the United States.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader conviction and aggregate information from music industry observers, streaming data analysts, and entertainment forecasters. Unlike traditional analyst rankings, market prices update continuously as new information emerges—chart trends, artist releases, and streaming momentum. Analysts may publish static forecasts, while prediction markets incorporate dynamic signals. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in factors analysts have overlooked or whether consensus exists around a likely chart leader on May 30, 2026.
The market resolves on Jun 13, 2026. Resolution is determined by identifying which song holds the number-one position on Spotify's official USA daily chart on May 30, 2026. The outcome is objective and verifiable through Spotify's public chart data. Once the chart is published and confirmed, the winning song outcome resolves to 100 cents and all other outcomes resolve to zero. This timing allows traders to position before the chart date and settle shortly after confirmation.
Major artist album or single releases scheduled before May 30, 2026 can dramatically shift odds for contending songs. Chart performance and streaming velocity in the weeks leading up to the date provide real-time signals. Award show wins, viral social media moments, and playlist placements on Spotify's editorial playlists influence streaming volume. Radio airplay and music video releases amplify visibility. Surprise collaborations or remix releases can boost a track's momentum. Trader sentiment also responds to industry news, artist announcements, and emerging chart trends that suggest which songs are gaining or losing streaming share.