TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
stupid song
- Kalshi
stupid song - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 25, 2026
Closed: Jun 24, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which song will rank as the #1 most-streamed track in the United States on Spotify's Daily Top Songs USA chart as of June 24, 2026. The resolution depends on Spotify's official streaming data and chart rankings specific to the USA market on that date.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by which song achieves the #1 position on Spotify's Daily Top Songs USA chart on the chart dated June 24, 2026. Each potential outcome corresponds to a specific song title, and the market resolves to Yes for whichever song holds the top ranking on that date according to Spotify's official USA chart data. The resolution is based solely on Spotify's published rankings and does not constitute an endorsement of this market by Spotify or indicate any affiliation between Spotify and Kalshi.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader conviction and aggregate dispersed information about streaming trends, artist momentum, and chart dynamics. Analyst forecasts from music industry publications and chart predictors often rely on historical patterns and recent performance data. This market's odds may diverge from traditional analyst views because traders incorporate breaking news, social media signals, and playlist algorithm shifts that formal forecasts may lag on. Comparing the two reveals where the crowd sees upside or downside relative to expert consensus.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each potential outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective probability traders assign to that song becoming the top track on the USA Spotify chart by the resolution date. As new information emerges—chart leaks, streaming surges, or artist announcements—traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down. The spread between bid and ask prices tightens as more volume flows through the market.
This market resolves around Jul 8, 2026, once the outcome is verifiable from credible public sources. The winning outcome is determined by which song holds the top position on Spotify's official USA daily chart on that date. Resolution is straightforward and objective, tied to Spotify's published rankings rather than subjective interpretation. Traders should monitor Spotify's chart updates and music industry news in the final days leading up to settlement.
Major catalysts include surprise album or single releases from high-profile artists, viral social media moments that drive streaming spikes, and playlist placements on Spotify's most-followed editorial playlists. Chart performance from competing songs, radio airplay announcements, and award show performances can shift momentum. Streaming data leaks or industry reports revealing real-time chart positions may trigger sharp repricing. Artist collaborations, music video releases, and celebrity endorsements also influence listener behavior. Traders watch these signals closely to adjust positions before the final chart lock.
