TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$192,072,993
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,842,388,377
408,027
Markets across
40,419
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Below: Limited Series
- Kalshi
Below: Limited Series - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Oct 20, 2026
Closed: Oct 19, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which Netflix show will top the US streaming charts for a specific week, reflecting viewer preferences and popularity trends. The outcome depends entirely on audience viewing behavior during the specified period.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published on October 20, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. Markets close at 11:59 PM ET the day before chart publication (October 19, 2026). Each market corresponds to a specific show; resolution is 'Yes' if that show ranks #1 on the published chart. All references to Netflix are purely descriptive and indicate no endorsement or affiliation. The event tests predictive accuracy regarding audience engagement with new and returning content across genres and formats during a defined timeframe.
Frequently asked questions
It's common to see differences between prediction market odds and those of traditional analysts. While analysts often rely on historical data and industry trends, this market incorporates a wider range of information and the collective wisdom of many participants. Often, prediction markets can anticipate outcomes more accurately than polls or expert opinions, especially when there's a lot of uncertainty or hidden information. Currently, it's worth comparing the leading show’s probability here to what entertainment analysts are predicting for the top US Netflix show.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about which show will be the most popular. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy contracts for a particular show, its price increases, and its implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts to new information and changing sentiment, offering a real-time assessment of the most likely outcome. Traders are constantly updating their views, leading to a fluid and efficient pricing mechanism.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the top US Netflix show for the relevant week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available viewership data from Netflix or a similar trusted source, as determined by Kalshi. The show with the highest verified viewership will be declared the winner of this market. The goal is to identify the show that garnered the most attention during the specified period, as measured by official metrics.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major promotional campaigns for new shows, critical acclaim or negative reviews, and social media buzz can all influence viewership. Unexpected releases or scheduling changes by Netflix could also shift the odds. The release of trailer drops or celebrity endorsements could also move the market. Any news related to the popularity of existing shows or the anticipation of upcoming series could cause traders to adjust their positions, leading to fluctuations in the market prices. Keep an eye on entertainment news and social media trends for potential catalysts.
