TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 27, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks which show will rank first on Netflix's US Top 10 chart for the week ending July 27, 2026. On Kalshi, the current probability that The Hawk: Season 1 will be the top US Netflix show is 97%. The outcome will be resolved based on Netflix's official chart published on July 28, 2026. Watch for the chart publication on July 28, 2026, to confirm the week's leading show.
Resolution is based on Netflix's official Top 10 US Show rankings published on July 28, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on July 27, 2026, the day before chart publication. A Yes resolution occurs if the specified show achieves the #1 position on that published chart.
Right now, prediction market odds reflect trader expectations about which show will lead U.S. streaming viewership this week. These odds often differ from analyst forecasts, which may be based on longer-term trends, production schedules, or promotional cycles. Analysts might favor shows with strong pre-release buzz or award-season positioning, while traders react more quickly to weekly viewership reports and social media trends.
On Kalshi, traders actively set the odds for the top US Netflix show market through continuous bidding and asking. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current probability reflects aggregated trader sentiment, with market depth and liquidity influencing price discovery. Volume of $518,587 shows trader interest, while recent $86,052 indicates short-term activity shifts. As the week progresses, new releases or viewing patterns can cause rapid adjustments in pricing.
This market resolves around Jul 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the week’s final Netflix viewership figures are verified against credible public sources. The top show is determined by the most recent, authoritative U.S. streaming data released by Netflix or a trusted third-party measurement firm.
Several signals could impact this market before Jul 28, 2026. Major content drops, award nominations, or surprise popularity surges often shift viewer preferences overnight. Platform-specific promotions or technical issues with streaming quality may also alter rankings abruptly. Media coverage highlighting certain genres or creators tends to drive short-term viewing spikes, while subscriber fatigue or competing releases can depress performance equally fast.