TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle I
Description
This event tracks which film appears at the top position on Netflix's US movie rankings for a specific week. Participants speculate on whether particular titles will achieve the highest viewership during that period, reflecting audience preferences and viewing trends.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published on October 13, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. Markets close at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart's publication to prevent late changes from affecting outcomes. Each market corresponds to a specific movie, with a 'Yes' outcome if that film ranks #1. These markets are independent speculations and carry no endorsement from Netflix; references to the platform are used descriptively only.
Frequently asked questions
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on reviews, box office history, and marketing spend, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of factors and potentially identifying unexpected hits. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can quickly adjust to new information and changing viewer preferences. Examining these differences can offer a more nuanced understanding of potential movie performance than either source alone.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in each movie’s probability of being the top pick. The price of each contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the collective prediction. The market’s depth and liquidity, indicated by the volume, also influence price discovery, allowing for efficient and accurate forecasting of the US Netflix movie market.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the top movie on US Netflix for the relevant week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on official viewership data released by Netflix or a reputable third-party source tracking streaming performance. The contract corresponding to the movie that achieves the highest viewership will be settled as 'yes,' while all other contracts will settle as 'no.' This provides a clear and objective resolution to this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected critical acclaim or viral social media buzz surrounding a newly released film could rapidly shift the odds. Major marketing pushes from Netflix, or prominent placement on the platform’s homepage, could also drive viewership and influence the market. Additionally, the release of trailers or clips revealing compelling content could sway trader sentiment. Any significant news or events related to the featured movies have the potential to move this market before Oct 13, 2026.
