TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Maternal Instinct
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 17, 2026
Closed: Jun 15, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
One of several films will rank as the top movie in the United States on Netflix's regional charts as of mid-June 2026.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published on June 16, 2026. The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on June 15, 2026, the day before the chart publication. The published chart reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. One outcome resolves to Yes if the corresponding movie achieves the #1 ranking on that specific chart date.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect aggregated trader sentiment and often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts or entertainment industry predictions. While analysts may rely on critical reviews, marketing spend, and historical performance data, prediction markets incorporate real-money incentives that reward accuracy. Comparing Kalshi probabilities to entertainment media forecasts and Netflix viewing trend reports can reveal where traders see value or disagreement with conventional wisdom about which movie will top the weekly charts.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, each potential top movie is priced as a binary contract reflecting the probability traders assign to that outcome. Prices range from 0 to 100 cents, where higher prices indicate greater market confidence. You can buy or sell contracts at the current bid-ask spread, with your position settling based on Netflix's official weekly top movie ranking. Real-time order books show depth and liquidity, helping you execute trades at competitive rates as the resolution date approaches.
The market resolves on Jun 16, 2026. Resolution is determined by Netflix's official weekly top movie ranking for the United States during the specified period. The movie that holds the number-one position on Netflix's public charts at the resolution time will be declared the winner. Traders should monitor Netflix's official rankings and any announcements from the platform to confirm which title has claimed the top spot.
Several factors can shift odds before resolution. Major celebrity news, viral social media moments, or critical reviews can boost or sink a film's viewership. Netflix's own promotional campaigns and featured placement on the homepage influence viewing patterns. Release timing of competing new movies matters significantly. Real-world events or cultural moments tied to a film's themes can drive sudden interest spikes. Additionally, weekend viewing patterns and word-of-mouth momentum in the final days before the weekly rankings update typically create the most dramatic price movements in the market.
