TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Choosin' Texas
- Kalshi
Choosin' Texas - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 3, 2026
Closed: Jul 2, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which song will hold the #1 position on Spotify's Weekly Top Songs USA chart for the week dated July 2, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific song title, and resolves to Yes if that song achieves the top ranking on that particular chart date.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the Spotify Weekly Top Songs USA chart dated July 2, 2026. Each market resolves to Yes if its corresponding song holds the #1 position on that chart. The eligible songs are: stupid song, Choosin' Texas, the cure, Earrings, honeybee, hate that i made you love me, drop dead, Janice STFU, expectations, maggots for brains, Cinderella (feat. Ty Dolla $ign), Be Her, Billie Jean, my way, and what's wrong with me. Only one song can occupy the #1 position, so only one market will resolve to Yes. If none of these songs rank #1 on the specified chart date, all markets resolve to No. This market is not endorsed by Spotify and references to Spotify charts and streaming data are descriptive only.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional music industry forecasts and chart analysts' predictions. While music publications and streaming platforms may highlight expected chart leaders based on current momentum and promotional activity, this market aggregates real-money trader conviction into a single probability. Traders factor in streaming trends, radio play, social media buzz, and release timing—sometimes reaching different conclusions than conventional analysts. Comparing the implied odds here to published expert commentary can reveal where the crowd's expectations differ from industry consensus.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each potential top song outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share's price reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders; higher prices indicate stronger market belief in that outcome. Liquidity and trading volume determine how easily you can enter or exit positions, and the spread between bid and ask prices reflects market uncertainty and participation levels around this event.
This market resolves around Jul 16, 2026, once the Weekly Top Songs USA chart for July 2, 2026 is published and verified. The outcome is confirmed by comparing the official chart data against credible public reporting to identify the number-one ranked song. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout once the resolution is finalized and the market settles on the platform.
Major catalysts include new song releases from top artists, unexpected viral moments on social media, radio playlist rotations, and streaming platform algorithmic pushes. Award show performances, celebrity endorsements, and chart-tracking reports published in the weeks leading up to July 2 can shift trader expectations significantly. Additionally, changes in listener behavior during summer months, competing releases from rival artists, and real-time streaming data leaks may all influence how traders price outcomes in this market as the resolution date approaches.
