TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
hate that i made you love me
- Kalshi
hate that i made you love me - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 26, 2026
Closed: Jun 25, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which song will rank as the #1 most-streamed track globally on Spotify's Daily Top Songs Global chart as of June 25, 2026. The outcome resolves based on Spotify's official global streaming rankings for that specific date.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by identifying which song achieves the #1 position on Spotify's Daily Top Songs Global chart on the chart dated June 25, 2026. The event includes multiple possible outcomes, each corresponding to a specific song title. Whichever song holds the top ranking on that date triggers a Yes resolution for its corresponding outcome. Spotify charts are referenced descriptively and do not indicate any endorsement or affiliation between Spotify and Kalshi.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds represent real-money bets from traders who research streaming trends, artist momentum, and chart history. Analyst forecasts typically rely on historical chart performance, current release schedules, and industry reports. This market often diverges from traditional analyst views because traders incorporate breaking news, surprise releases, and shifting listener preferences in real time. The crowd-sourced nature of prediction markets can sometimes identify emerging chart contenders faster than conventional analysis, though both approaches offer distinct value for forecasting the top global song.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each possible outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share reflects the market's implied probability that a given song will rank number one on the target date. Prices fluctuate based on supply and demand; as new information surfaces or sentiment shifts, traders adjust their positions, moving the odds up or down. The final price at any moment represents the aggregated belief of all active participants.
This market resolves around Jul 9, 2026, once Spotify's official global chart for June 25, 2026 is published and verified. The outcome is determined by identifying which song holds the top position on that date according to credible public reporting of Spotify's chart data. Traders who correctly predicted the number-one track receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution hinges on the verified chart standing on the specified date.
Major label announcements of surprise releases or comeback albums can shift odds dramatically, as can unexpected chart debuts from established artists. Streaming platform algorithm changes or promotional campaigns by record labels influence listener behavior and chart positioning. Celebrity news, viral moments, and social media trends often accelerate a song's climb or decline. Radio play, playlist placements, and international touring announcements also signal momentum. As the June 25, 2026 date approaches, actual chart performance in the weeks prior becomes the strongest predictor, causing traders to adjust positions based on real streaming data and trajectory.
