TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 11, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
A song reaches the number one position on a global music streaming chart on a specific date in June 2026. The event will be confirmed if any song from a predefined list achieves that top ranking on that date.
If hate that i made you love me is #1 on the Daily Top Songs Global chart on the chart dated Jun 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Beauty And A Beat is #1 on the Daily Top Songs Global chart on the chart dated Jun 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Billie Jean is #1 on the Daily Top Songs Global chart on the chart dated Jun 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If SWIM is #1 on the Daily Top Songs Global chart on the chart dated Jun 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Babydoll is #1 on the Daily Top Songs Global chart on the chart dated Jun 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the cure is #1 on the Daily Top Songs Global chart on the chart dated Jun 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Earrings is #1 on the Daily Top Songs Global chart on the chart dated Jun 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Beat It is #1 on the Daily Top Songs Global chart on the chart dated Jun 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Janice STFU is #1 on the Daily Top Songs Global chart on the chart dated Jun 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If I Knew It, I Knew You is #1 on the Daily Top Songs Global chart on the chart dated Jun 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If The One That Got Away is #1 on the Daily Top Songs Global chart on the chart dated Jun 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Self Aware is #1 on the Daily Top Songs Global chart on the chart dated Jun 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If back to friends is #1 on the Daily Top Songs Global chart on the chart dated Jun 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Chicago is #1 on the Daily Top Songs Global chart on the chart dated Jun 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If drop dead is #1 on the Daily Top Songs Global chart on the chart dated Jun 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money bets from traders and music industry observers, often diverging from traditional music analyst forecasts and chart predictions. While analysts may rely on historical chart momentum and streaming velocity, prediction markets incorporate broader sentiment, artist momentum, and upcoming releases. Comparing Kalshi odds to music journalist predictions and streaming analytics platforms can reveal where the crowd expects surprises or consensus breakouts in the global top song race.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, each candidate song is priced as a separate binary contract reflecting the probability that song will rank as Spotify's top global track on the resolution date. Traders buy or sell contracts at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the implied probability derived from the contract price. As new streaming data, chart positions, and artist releases emerge, prices adjust dynamically to reflect updated market expectations for which song will hold the top spot.
The market resolves on Jun 25, 2026, after Spotify's official global top song data for June 11, 2026 is published. The outcome is determined by Spotify's verified global chart ranking on that specific date. Only the song ranked number one globally on Spotify as of June 11, 2026 will be the winning outcome; all other candidate songs resolve to zero value.
Major catalysts include new album releases and surprise drops from top artists, viral social media moments and TikTok trends that boost streaming, chart performance and weekly Spotify data updates, award show performances and media coverage, and streaming playlist placements on Spotify's flagship editorial playlists. International chart debuts and regional streaming surges can also shift odds significantly. Radio play, music video releases, and collaborations with high-profile artists in early 2026 will all influence which song traders expect to dominate the global charts by mid-June.