TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which television show achieves the highest position on Netflix's global rankings in a specific week. Participants speculate on whether particular series or seasons will lead the charts, reflecting viewer preferences and streaming trends during that period.
Kalshi
The event determines which show occupies the top position on Netflix's Global Top 10 list for the week ending the Sunday before October 20, 2026, with the chart published on October 20, 2026. All markets resolve based on this singular ranking, where a 'Yes' outcome occurs only if the specified show is ranked #1. The markets close at 11:59 PM ET on Monday, October 19, 2026, to align with Netflix's Tuesday chart updates. Each market corresponds to a different show or season, and no endorsement from Netflix is implied through participation or references in these rules.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts for television viewership. While entertainment analysts regularly predict which shows will perform well, their methods differ significantly from a prediction market. Analysts often rely on historical data, marketing spend, and critical reception, whereas this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to make accurate predictions. It's possible that this market will align with analyst expectations, but it could also reveal insights that are missed by conventional analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about which show will be the most popular on Netflix. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy contracts for a particular show, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of success. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity provide a dynamic assessment of the potential winner.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the top global Netflix show for the relevant week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on Netflix’s publicly available data regarding viewership hours or a similar metric that measures overall popularity. This market will determine which show reaches the top spot based on the data released by Netflix at that time. The resolution will be based on objective viewership data, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Major marketing campaigns or promotional pushes for specific shows could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected critical acclaim or negative reviews could also influence the odds. Furthermore, the release of trailers or early episodes could generate buzz and affect trading activity. Any news regarding cast changes, production delays, or licensing agreements could also play a role. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of a show’s potential popularity could move this market.
