TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$172,394,893
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,821,572,886
404,136
Markets across
40,075
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which movie will top Netflix's global rankings in a specific week, reflecting viewer preferences and streaming trends. The outcome depends on audience engagement and viewing habits during the specified period.
Kalshi
Each market resolves based on whether the named movie appears as the number one title on Netflix's Top 10 Global Movie chart for the week ending the Sunday before October 6, 2026. All markets share identical secondary rules: Netflix updates its charts every Tuesday, so trading will close at 11:59 PM ET the Monday before the chart publication date. None of these markets imply any endorsement from Netflix, which is mentioned only for descriptive clarity.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ effect, potentially identifying popular choices before traditional analysts. However, analyst predictions may incorporate qualitative factors or insider information not readily available to market participants. Discrepancies between the two can highlight differing perspectives on the likely outcome of which movie will be the most popular on Netflix this week, offering valuable insights for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders set the odds by placing buy and sell orders for contracts on each potential outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market dynamically adjusts to incorporate new information and shifts in sentiment regarding the top Netflix movie.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the most-watched movie on Netflix globally for the relevant week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on publicly available viewership data released by Netflix or a reputable third-party source tracking Netflix’s performance. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process, reflecting the actual viewing habits of Netflix subscribers worldwide. The market will then settle based on which movie was confirmed as the most popular.
Several signals could significantly move this market before resolution. Major marketing campaigns or critical acclaim for a newly released movie on Netflix could quickly shift viewer attention and drive up its odds. Unexpected news regarding a film’s cast or director, or even viral social media trends, could also influence viewership. Furthermore, the release of competing content on other streaming platforms might impact Netflix’s overall viewership numbers, potentially affecting which movie rises to the top. Any substantial change in public perception or viewing habits could cause significant fluctuations in this market.
