TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
The Last House
- Kalshi
The Last House - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 18, 2026
Closed: Aug 17, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which movie achieves the highest viewership globally on Netflix during a specific week. It reflects viewer preferences and trends in popular cinema over a defined period, showcasing how audiences engage with streaming content on a large scale.
Kalshi
The event determines whether any of the specified movies rank #1 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Movie chart published on August 18, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different movie, and resolution depends solely on that film's position on the chart for the week ending the Sunday before August 18. All markets close at 11:59 PM ET on August 17, 2026, to align with Netflix's Tuesday chart update schedule. The markets are independent, meaning the outcome for each depends exclusively on whether its respective movie secures the top spot. No endorsement or affiliation between Netflix and the event operator is implied through these references.
Frequently asked questions
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of viewer behavior. Analysts may weigh factors like production budget or star power, while traders in this market react to real-time streaming data, social media buzz, and weekly viewership trends. This can lead to notable differences — for example, a film with strong early momentum might see higher odds here than in expert polls, capturing rapid shifts in public interest that slower analytical models might miss.
This market resolves around Aug 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning title will be the one that ranks highest in global Netflix streaming for the specified week, as reported by reliable entertainment news outlets and official Netflix data releases. No subjective judgment is involved — the result is based on publicly available viewership metrics for that period.
Several signals could shift odds in this market before it settles. Major marketing campaigns, star-studded premieres, or surprise drop dates often cause rapid repricing. Negative press — such as controversy or technical issues — might also hurt a title’s chances, driving its probability down. Additionally, weekly streaming chart updates and social media trends can create short-term volatility, especially as new titles enter the race in the days leading to Aug 18, 2026.
