TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which movie will top Netflix's global rankings in a specific week, allowing participants to speculate on viewer preferences and trending content. The outcome depends entirely on Netflix's publicly available chart data for that period.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the Netflix Top 10 Global Movie chart published on October 27, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. Markets close at 11:59 PM ET the day before chart publication (October 26, 2026). Each market corresponds to a specific movie; resolution occurs when that film occupies the number one position on the specified chart. None of these markets imply endorsement by Netflix, which is referenced only descriptively. The timing aligns with Netflix's established Tuesday chart update schedule.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the predictions within this market to traditional analyst forecasts. While many entertainment analysts offer predictions on streaming viewership, these are often qualitative or based on limited data. This market, however, aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, allowing traders to continuously update their beliefs based on new information. It will be interesting to see if the outcome of this market aligns with pre-release expectations or if the collective prediction diverges from those initial forecasts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in a particular movie topping the charts. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of success. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity provide insights into the collective assessment of each film’s potential performance. Essentially, traders are using their own research and insights to set the odds.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the most popular Netflix movie for that week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on official viewership data released by Netflix or a reputable third-party source tracking global streaming statistics. The market will then reflect which film garnered the highest number of viewing hours or total views during the specified period, establishing the winning outcome for this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major marketing campaigns launched by Netflix for specific films, critical reviews released closer to the release dates, and social media buzz surrounding certain titles are all potential catalysts. Unexpected viral trends or celebrity endorsements could also shift public attention and influence viewership. Furthermore, the release of competing films on other streaming platforms or in theaters might draw viewers away from Netflix, impacting the relative performance of movies within this market.
