TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which film ranks highest on Netflix's global movie chart for the week ending Sunday, October 18, 2026, with the chart being published on Tuesday, October 20. Participants speculate on whether specific titles will claim the top spot during that period.
Kalshi
The event determines the highest-ranked global Netflix movie for the week ending the Sunday before October 20, 2026, with the chart published on that Tuesday. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if its designated film appears in the #1 position on the specified chart. All markets share identical secondary rules: Netflix updates its charts every Tuesday, so trading will close at 11:59 PM ET the preceding Monday. Participants should note that neither Netflix nor Kalshi endorses these markets, and any referenced trademarks are used descriptively without implying affiliation or endorsement. The outcome depends solely on Netflix's publicly available chart data for the defined week.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional media predictions or analyst reports regarding which movie will be the most popular on Netflix. While analysts may focus on factors like star power or genre trends, this market reflects the aggregated predictions of a diverse group of traders who consider a wider range of variables. Discrepancies can highlight overlooked factors or differing interpretations of available data.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in a particular movie being the top performer. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe a movie will win, the higher the price of its contract will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the top global Netflix movie for the week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official viewership data released by Netflix or a similarly reputable source that tracks global streaming statistics. This data will be used to determine which movie garnered the most views during the specified timeframe, establishing the winning outcome for this market. The determination will rely on publicly available and independently verifiable information.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market before resolution. A major marketing push for a particular movie, positive critical reviews, or viral social media buzz could all increase its chances of topping the charts. Unexpected releases of competing films, changes to Netflix’s algorithm impacting visibility, or even news about cast members could also influence trading activity. Any data suggesting a shift in viewership trends, even preliminary indicators, has the potential to cause substantial price fluctuations in this market.
