TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which movie will top Netflix's global rankings in a specific week, reflecting viewer preferences and streaming trends. The outcome depends on real-time audience engagement and viewing habits during the specified period.
Kalshi
Each market resolves based on whether a specified movie ranks #1 on Netflix's Top 10 Global Movie chart for the week ending the Sunday before October 13, 2026. All markets share identical secondary rules: Netflix charts update on Tuesdays, so trading will close at 11:59 PM ET on Monday, October 12, 2026. None of these markets imply any endorsement from Netflix, which is mentioned only for descriptive clarity. The resolution hinges solely on the publicly available Netflix chart data for the defined week.
Frequently asked questions
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on reviews, marketing spend, and historical data, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to make accurate predictions. Discrepancies can arise when the market anticipates a 'dark horse' candidate that analysts have overlooked, or when traders factor in intangible elements like social media buzz. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially leading to forecasts that diverge from initial expert opinions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about which movie will be the most popular. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of success. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price, suggesting decreasing confidence in that particular movie's performance. The market efficiently aggregates diverse viewpoints into a single, dynamic price.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the top global Netflix movie for the week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official viewership data released by Netflix or a reputable third-party source tracking global streaming statistics. The movie with the highest reported total viewing hours will be declared the winner, and contracts corresponding to that outcome will settle at 100. All other contracts will settle at 0, reflecting no value.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. A surprise critical acclaim or negative reception for a newly released movie could quickly shift trader sentiment. Major marketing campaigns or celebrity endorsements could also drive increased viewership for specific titles. Unexpected platform-wide outages or content licensing changes could disrupt viewing patterns, influencing which movies gain traction. Even significant social media trends or viral moments related to a particular film could move this market as traders react to evolving public perception.
