TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 4, 11:44 PM EST
Kalshi
Top Esports and Team Secret Whales will compete in Map 1 of their League of Legends match at the Mid-Season Invitational 2026 on July 4, 2026. The outcome depends on which team successfully wins the individual map.
Resolution is determined by the winner of Map 1 in the Mid-Season Invitational 2026 match between Top Esports and Team Secret Whales scheduled for July 4, 2026 at 11:00 PM EDT. The market resolves to Yes for whichever team wins the map.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets like this one are driven purely by trader conviction—there's no house edge or margin built in. Traders here stake real money on their beliefs about the Map 1 outcome, which can lead to sharper, more efficient pricing than sportsbooks in some cases. Comparing this market's odds to major sportsbooks can reveal where public perception and informed traders disagree most.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order-book trading, where buyers and sellers submit bids and offers that determine the live odds. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price you see reflects the most recent matched trade and the spread between current buy and sell orders. As more traders enter positions ahead of the match, the odds shift to balance supply and demand. This mechanism ensures that prices adapt in real time to new information, team roster changes, or betting patterns, keeping the market efficient and responsive.
This market resolves around Jul 5, 2026, once the Map 1 result is final and verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by which team wins the first map of the match according to official tournament records or broadcast confirmation. No further action is required from you after the match concludes; resolution happens automatically once the result is confirmed. Early resolution may occur if the match is officially cancelled or postponed beyond the resolution window.
Key catalysts include roster announcements or last-minute player substitutions, recent tournament performance by either squad, and map-specific meta shifts in the esports title being played. Injury news, team chemistry updates, or coaching changes can swing odds significantly. Pre-match interviews and analyst commentary often trigger trading surges as new information surfaces. Additionally, betting patterns from professional bettors or known insiders can signal conviction and move prices. Monitor official team social media and esports news outlets for developments that might shift trader sentiment before the first map begins.