TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Choosin' Texas
- Kalshi
Choosin' Texas - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 14, 2026
Closed: Sep 12, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the highest view count on YouTube's US daily chart for a specific date. Participants can speculate on whether a particular video will top the rankings, reflecting viewer engagement and popularity trends.
Kalshi
The event determines the winner based on which specified music video attains the highest position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos chart for the United States on September 12, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different music video, and resolution depends solely on that video's ranking for the designated date. All markets operate independently, with no cumulative or comparative scoring across entries. YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by YouTube or Kalshi.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for popular music videos. While analysts often rely on pre-release hype, streaming numbers, and social media engagement, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are actively putting capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies between the two can highlight potential over- or under-estimations by either side, offering valuable insights into the likely performance of music videos. It is important to note that analysts’ predictions are often qualitative, while this market provides a quantitative, real-time assessment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different music videos, and the price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a particular video, its price increases, reflecting a higher probability of it being the top daily music video. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price represents the cost to purchase a contract that pays out $1 if that music video is indeed the top-ranked video on YouTube in the USA on the specified date.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the top daily music video on YouTube in the USA will be determined by the official YouTube charts for September 12, 2026. The video with the highest number of views on that day, as reported by YouTube, will be considered the winning outcome for this market. Traders will then be paid out based on the final price of the contract they held for the winning video.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major announcements regarding new music video releases from popular artists, unexpected viral trends on platforms like TikTok, and shifts in social media sentiment could all influence trader behavior. A sudden surge in views for a particular video, or a controversy surrounding an artist, could also lead to rapid price changes. Furthermore, any news impacting YouTube’s algorithm or chart methodology could also affect the perceived probabilities and therefore the prices within this market.
